Recently, this wave of market activity has indeed been influenced by some unexpected movers.

From a macro perspective, one side is the market betting that the Federal Reserve may ease its policies, while the other side is the increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by rising global geopolitical tensions. An even more interesting phenomenon is that Bitcoin is now beginning to fluctuate in tandem with gold.

Many people regard Bitcoin as digital gold, but in reality, this safe-haven characteristic more often reflects a strategic tendency of institutional investors when allocating assets. Since the main driver behind this round of rally is primarily institutional capital entering the market, the key factor to watch is the buying enthusiasm for institutional products.

The simple logic is— as long as the capital flow from institutions does not shrink, this rebound at the beginning of the year can still have momentum. Conversely, it might just be a larger-scale technical rebound with no subsequent support.