2026-01-15 01:22:10

Recently, the US December core CPI data stirred up a lot of activity. The year-over-year increase was 2.6%, lower than the previous market expectation of 2.7%, and the market immediately sparked a frenzy — from macro traders to the crypto community, everyone is reassessing the Federal Reserve's next move.

After the data was released, short-term interest rate futures reacted quickly, with traders heavily betting on the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed in April, with this probability once reaching 42%. Although a rate cut in June remains widely expected, the speed of this shift is truly astonishing. The entire market seems to be collectively rewriting its understanding of the Fed's policy.

However, a reality check: this does not mean the Fed has thrown in the towel.

The core logic is simple — the Fed's inflation target is set at 2%, and the current 2.6% remains sticky. Looking at the detailed data makes this clear: housing costs remain high, food prices are not decreasing but rising, with grocery prices in December increasing by 0.7% in a single month. These pressure sources have not dissipated, and the Fed is unlikely to relax policy so easily.

Therefore, the surge in the probability of a rate cut in April is less about increased policy certainty and more about the market engaging in a collective psychological game. The upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of January is a key point. Based on recent statements from Fed officials, they are likely to stick to the current interest rate level and maintain a hawkish stance.

The crypto market's sentiment rebounded quickly, but before chasing the highs, it's worth thinking clearly: how much of the market pricing reflects real policy shifts, and how much is just investors playing a expectations game?

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CryptoCrazyGF

· 9h ago

Still hyping the probability of rate cuts, do you really think the Federal Reserve is the big sucker? 2.6% is still a long way off. --- So it's just the market's wishful thinking. How could the Federal Reserve compromise so quickly? Wake up, everyone. --- Housing and food are still leveraged, why assume there will be a rate cut in April? That logic doesn't hold. --- It’s always like this—when the data is slightly better, the market gets so excited, then gets slapped in the face. I’m numb to it. --- Let’s wait until the FOMC meeting is over. Betting on April right now is purely a gambler’s mindset. --- Crypto reacts the slowest when following the trend, but is the most impulsive when it should be calm—typical herd mentality. --- 2.6% still has stickiness. That’s a very honest statement, but the market simply doesn’t listen. --- Expectations are just expectations; don’t treat them as real policies to avoid getting caught off guard. --- I just want to ask, will this be another false alarm? --- The Federal Reserve is holding firm and not cutting rates. I bet on that.

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CommunityLurker

· 9h ago

It's the same old trick again, the market collectively imagining that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates? Wake up, everyone, 2.6% is still far from 2%. It's like playing psychological warfare. The real test will be the FOMC meeting, and then you'll see how tough the Federal Reserve really is. Crypto is getting too heated; be careful of catching the falling knife at high levels.

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MetaLord420

· 9h ago

Really, it's another day of the market collectively hyping up. 2.6% looks good, but the Federal Reserve hasn't actually loosened its stance, and everyone is startings to gamble on a rate cut in April as if in a daze, it's hilarious. --- Housing and food are still eating up interest, so why would the Fed loosen the money supply? Wake up, everyone. --- A 42% chance to start celebrating? This is just the usual pre-FOMC routine; get ready to be proven wrong. --- Crypto is dancing along with futures again, it feels like we're about to get cut again, and the psychological game always ends with retail investors losing. --- Honestly, it's just the market hyping itself up; the real action is at the January Fed meeting. --- Going from 2.6% to 2% still needs a 0.6 percentage point drop. Does anyone really think the Fed is going to surrender? Think again. --- Friends chasing the high, be careful. Can this rebound last until the FOMC? I can't bet on it. --- Another feast for futures traders, the crypto community following suit and taking on positions—just the old routine.

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StablecoinAnxiety

· 9h ago

Here comes another wave of false hope, right? The Fed hasn't even hinted at easing yet, and the market is already getting excited. --- 2.6% is still above the 2% target. This rate cut expectation is a bit too premature. --- Housing and food are still rising. Why do people think the Fed will loosen? That logic doesn't hold up. --- A 42% probability basically means traders are wishful thinking. We still have to wait for the FOMC's statement. --- Crypto reacts too quickly, easy to chase highs and get caught. We need to see the Fed's true stance. --- Haha, the market is playing psychological games again. Just a little data and the narrative changes? Calm down. --- Sticky inflation isn't so easy to tackle. The Fed won't show weakness so quickly. --- A real shift in policy is still a game of expectations. Good question, I also want to know the answer. --- The January FOMC is the true litmus test; previous expectations were all nonsense. --- Food prices are still rising, with groceries up 0.7%. Everyone has overlooked these details.

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rekt_but_not_broke

· 9h ago

Here we go again? I think about 80% of the market sentiment this time is self-delusion. We'll know the Fed's true intentions once the FOMC meeting is over. Rate cuts? Don't get too excited yet; housing costs are still high, and CPI stickiness isn't that easy to shake off. 42% in April? Sounds impressive, but it's really just a gambling game for traders. To put it simply, 2.6% is still far from 2%, and the Fed isn't that easy to persuade. Before chasing the highs, you need to think carefully—whether this rebound is due to policy shifts or collective fantasy... but who the hell knows? It's all just psychological warfare. Let's wait until the end of January to see the outcome, everyone.

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rugpull_ptsd

· 9h ago

Another wave of false hope, this time it's about interest rate cuts. The market just loves this psychological game. Wait, 2.6% is still sticky, the Federal Reserve probably won't give in so quickly. Did someone chase the high again a few days ago? Remember the lessons from last time, everyone. Food and rent are still rising, why should we believe that April can really see a decrease? The FOMC is coming soon, it might be another wave of disappointment. Where's the promised policy shift? Turns out, it's all just the market playing its own drama. This rebound in crypto feels too much like hype; can you trust the pricing?

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