Lesson Two

I will keep the valuable knowledge from Yibo主播 for now and gradually absorb the common knowledge in the crypto circle later.

Intraday Trend Positioning Core Guide

1. Core Understanding of Intraday Trends

Intraday trend refers to the continuous directional movement of prices within a trading day, serving as the core basis for short-term trading strategies. It reflects the balance of buying and selling forces and is also a key anchor for risk control. Intraday trading has its peculiarities: requires second- or minute-level rapid decision-making; high liquidity during opening and closing periods; increased volatility in the evening session; sensitive to sudden events; frequent trading demands cost control and relies heavily on technical tools and trader discipline.

2. Four Core Trend-Determining Tools

1. K-Line Pattern Positioning
Trend Judgment: Higher highs and higher lows (HH/HL) indicate an uptrend, suitable for buying on dips; lower lows and lower highs (LL/LH) indicate a downtrend, suitable for shorting on rebounds; structure break may signal reversal or acceleration.

Key Patterns: Hammer at the end of a decline, bullish engulfing pattern, hanging man, dark cloud cover, three black crows, etc., are important reversal signals.

Risk Avoidance: Beware of false breakouts; verify with subsequent K-lines and volume; assess trend strength through changes in trendline slope.

2. Moving Average System Confirmation

Trend Signals: Short-, mid-, and long-term moving averages trending in the same direction (slope >30° indicates strong trend, <15° may suggest consolidation/reversal); formation of bullish/bearish alignment; golden cross signals bullish, death cross signals bearish.
Effective Breakouts: Price breaking above moving averages must exceed 3% amplitude, stabilize above 2 consecutive K-lines, and volume should increase to 1.5 times the 5-day average volume.

Practical Application: Use 5/15-minute moving averages for intraday trading; 20/60-minute for swing trading; allows layered position building and dynamic take-profit.

3. Multi-Timeframe Resonance Verification

Logic: Main cycle (e.g., 1-hour chart) determines direction; sub-cycle (e.g., 15/5-minute charts) identifies buy/sell points; sub-cycle must follow the main cycle trend.

Resonance Signals: Multi-timeframe moving averages, MACD aligned in the same direction, significantly increase success rate (e.g., MACD on three timeframes above zero line, with a 78% probability of a bullish outcome).

Counter-Strategy: Reduce position on divergence in sub-cycle; multi-timeframe divergence can be used to reverse position.

4. Volume-Price Coordination Verification
Effective Trend: Increasing volume with rising price (strong upward momentum), decreasing volume with falling price (exhausted selling pressure) are healthy signals; flat volume with stagnant price warrants caution.

Divergence Warning: Price makes new highs/lows without volume confirmation, indicating potential trend exhaustion.
Anomaly Alerts: Extreme volume peaks at tops, wash trading, sudden volume surges at the end of trading, often trap for false moves; verify with subsequent trend.

3. Practical Strategy Integration

1. Triple Filtering Mechanism
Combine K-line patterns (structure judgment), moving average system (trend confirmation), multi-timeframe resonance (signal verification), assisted by volume analysis to filter false breakouts and improve trading success rate.

2. Risk Control and Position Management
Stop-loss setting: Limit maximum loss per trade to 2% of total capital; adjust stop-loss dynamically based on volatility.
Position Strategy: Enter with 30% upon initial breakout; add 50% on pullback confirmation; close 50% on short-term moving average cross in opposite direction; close all if price breaks below trendline.

3. Discipline Requirements
Standardized Signals: Quantify trading conditions to reduce subjective judgment.
Review and Optimization: Record daily trading rationale and deviations for targeted improvements.
Emotional Control: Set maximum daily loss limits to avoid revenge trading; distinguish between expected and actual market conditions; strictly adhere to strategies.