A bold prophecy is fermenting within the Federal Reserve.

Recently, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed the view: the next Fed Chair, whoever it is, will hold only one vote, and must use the strongest logic and data to persuade the other 11 committee members. This is not just a work suggestion but a declaration of a profound change in the power structure.

Look at what the current Chair Powell is doing. During the massive rate hike campaign in 2023 to fight inflation, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) voted "unanimously" multiple times. On the surface, it seemed like a united front, but Kashkari’s words directly expose the truth — the seemingly invincible authority of the Chair is now being eroded by a "collective decision-making" mechanism.

History shows that it is extremely rare for the Fed Chair to cast a dissenting vote. In 2017, Yellen voted against the majority, which was interpreted by markets and analysts as a warning sign of cracks within the committee. Kashkari bluntly states: the true power of the future Chair will come from persuasion, not from that chair.

Reality is more brutal than predictions. Inside the current Fed, the divide between doves and hawks is like a chasm. The eternal economic "impossible trinity" — inflation, employment, and growth — makes it difficult to balance all three simultaneously. Any policy tilt could trigger turbulence in global financial markets. Kashkari’s emphasis on the "one vote" right is actually a warning: we can never go back to the era of a "one-man rule." Fierce debates will become the new normal in policy-making.

What does this mean? The next Chair must be a top "debate master," using data and rigorous logic to earn genuine consensus from the other 11 members. If not, policy implementation will significantly weaken.

From a global market perspective, what will this power reshuffle bring? A Fed that relies on "the strongest arguments" to push policies means increased uncertainty in interest rate decisions, with more turning points and sudden events likely. This not only rewrites the rules of the game in the US but also hangs like a sword over the global economy.

So the question is: will a Fed Chair with dispersed power become a market stabilizer or the fuse for a new round of turbulence? Who can steer such a committee with just "one mouth"?