Share your views on the US stock market this year

The US stock market's returns this year are likely to lag behind the previous two years, mainly because the midterm elections in the second half of the year are a big risk.
For Trump, if the midterm elections fail and the two chambers lose even one, he will basically enter a "garbage time" in the next two years. Given his stubborn nature, he will never allow himself to fail in the midterm elections.
In the short term, the Nasdaq has been stuck at the 24,000 resistance level for three months. My consistent view is that "as long as this resistance is not broken, it defaults to the Nasdaq still being in adjustment, with a 10%+ pullback expected."
By September at the latest, the Nasdaq's trend will be heavily influenced by the midterm elections. As early as July-August, the Nasdaq may enter a sideways phase again. Considering that capital markets dislike risk and uncertainty, and adding my extreme skepticism about whether Trump will use executive power to interfere in the elections, potentially leading to a "constitutional crisis" in the US in the second half of the year, it is wiser to switch to gold after July regardless.
Of course, in the short term, I believe gold will peak, as it has been rising for six consecutive months and has already gained over 10% this month. There is a significant possibility of a slight correction. After that, the focus of the capital market will shift back to US stocks. I estimate gold will trade sideways for three or four months until August-September, when US stocks stagnate, and then capital will refocus on gold.
Theoretically, the outcome of the midterm elections will be clear by November, but I highly doubt Trump will accept the election results and may throw out excuses like "election fraud," so I don't think the market will stabilize by the end of the year. This also leads me to believe that the year-end closing point will likely be in Q2 or Q3, not Q4. From an annualized perspective, the overall performance for the year might even be a decline compared to last year.
However, I don't think the Nasdaq will retreat more than 40%. At most, it will be similar to the declines during the pandemic and rate hikes. After the Nasdaq drops below 30%, if the Fed intervenes, the market will bottom out. Of course, for $BTC , it's also important to closely watch the US stock market's trend. When US stocks rise, Bitcoin may not necessarily rise, but when they fall, Bitcoin will definitely fall. #Gate广场创作者新春激励