Long-term fundamentals support: TVL (Total Value Locked) has surpassed $300 billion, with stablecoins accounting for about 58%, and Ethereum's position as the on-chain financial core is strengthening.

· Key figures' statements: Vitalik Buterin publicly stated he is “buying more ETH during dips.”
· Technical analysis perspective: Some analysts believe that if the weekly close is above $3,400, it could open up more upside potential.
· On-chain data: Continuous buying of spot ETFs has reduced market circulation.

Core bearish/cautious logic and basis

· Short-term technical pressure: The price has repeatedly faced resistance at $3,000 and cannot break through effectively, indicating a short-term weakening structure.
· Derivatives signals: Funding rates are sliding into negative territory, indicating growing bearish sentiment in the futures market.
· Macro economy and capital flows: Some believe that traditional markets (such as gold and stocks) are attracting funds, leading to insufficient capital in the crypto market.
· Structural risks: The development of Layer 2 solutions may weaken the mainnet’s value capture ability.

How to make rational decisions

Instead of seeking a simple direction, evaluate your trading plan from the following dimensions:

1. Clarify your time frame: Short-term trading (a few days/weeks) should focus on the key zone of $2,850-$3,080, as well as derivatives signals like funding rates. Medium to long-term (several months or more) should pay more attention to fundamentals such as TVL and stablecoin share.
2. Assess the current market structure: Currently, bulls and bears are fiercely contesting in the $2,850-$3,080 range. You can consider $2,850 as a short-term strength/weakness dividing line—if broken, bearish forces strengthen; view $3,080 as a critical resistance to reverse the weakness—breaking through may test higher resistance levels.
3. Strictly implement risk management: In a market with significant disagreement in views, set clear stop-loss levels. For example, long positions can set stop-loss below $2,850, and short positions can set stop-loss above $3,080.

A feasible observation perspective

Some market opinions suggest that Ethereum is currently in a “fundamentally bullish” but “price weak” state. If you believe in its long-term value, viewing the current period as an observation and phased positioning zone rather than a single-point bet might be a more prudent approach. You can set several key support levels (such as $2,900, $2,850) as potential observation zones and wait for clear stabilization signals at these levels before making decisions. $BTC $ETH