Is the end of the bull market real? Understanding the structural changes brought about by market maturation

There is a growing industry-wide attention to the fact that some media outlets have severely misunderstood Mr. Wintermute’s market analysis. According to a commentary published by Mr. Garrett Jin on the X platform, the expansion of institutional investor participation is not merely the end of a market cycle, but rather indicates a fundamental transformation process within the market. Clarifying this misunderstanding is essential to accurately understanding the current cryptocurrency market.

The Truth Behind the Influx of Institutional Investors

The phenomenon of large-scale entry of institutional investors into the market follows basic principles that lead to price increases and reduced volatility. Historical data shows that in both the Chinese A-share market and the US stock market, inflows from large institutional investors have consistently formed more stable, trend-driven market structures.

Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are following exactly the same evolutionary pattern. While ETFs and large-scale purchases by government agencies steadily push prices upward, market price volatility has significantly decreased. This is not merely a temporary phenomenon but a sign that the market mechanism itself is undergoing a qualitative change.

From Speculation to Allocation — A Qualitative Shift in Market Mechanics

The core of Mr. Wintermute’s analysis is that mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are transforming from speculative trading assets into allocation assets. This change can be confirmed through multiple specific market signals.

Trading volume by institutional investors now far exceeds that of individual investors, and trading with sharp surges and drops has greatly diminished. After the accelerated inflow of institutional investors in the second half of 2025, the market correction in October last year further strengthened the dominance of mainstream assets, widening the structural gap with auxiliary assets. During the subsequent recovery phase, individual investors’ funds have concentrated into Bitcoin and Ethereum as defensive holdings.

Differentiation Between Mainstream and Auxiliary Assets — Signs of Market Maturity

The essence of this market change is not the end of market trends but a fundamental transformation of the internal market structure. In the past, markets were characterized by high volatility driven mainly by individual investors, with auxiliary assets thriving. That phase has indeed come to an end.

At the same time, the entire market is systematically evolving from a speculative trading system to an allocation-based operational framework, from dependence on individual investor sentiment to dominance by institutional investor positions, and from extreme price fluctuations to stability at the level of institutional investors.

Beyond Misunderstanding — Understanding the Evolution Toward a Mature Market

The phrase “end of a bull market” is a misunderstanding that overlooks the essence of market development. In reality, the market is transitioning from an initial, speculation-driven stage to a mature, allocation-driven stage. This qualitative change is evidence that the cryptocurrency market is genuinely growing as a financial market, and it indicates an improvement in market health and stability. It is not an end, but an evolution — this is the accurate way to describe the current state of the market.