Goldman Sachs 2026 Commodity Forecast: Gold to reach $4,900, Brent crude oil price expected to fall to $56

Goldman Sachs has expressed a bullish outlook on the financial markets through 2026 in its latest commodity market outlook report. The firm notes that a combination of factors will push up gold prices, while ongoing supply pressures are expected to persist in the crude oil market.

Crude Oil Market Driven by Oversupply, Brent Oil Prices to Undergo Significant Adjustment

According to the report, 2026 is expected to be the year when global oil supply fluctuations are finally balanced out. Specifically, with an oversupply of 2 million barrels per day continuing, Brent crude oil prices are projected to decline to an average of $56 per barrel. It is assumed that prices will bottom out around mid-year, and this low level will serve as an adjustment process toward market equilibrium.

Supply-side pressures remain strong, and with multiple oil-producing regions increasing output simultaneously, the firm analyzes that there will be limited room for a price rebound.

Gold Market Supported by Multiple Factors, Dual Strategy of Central Banks and Private Investment

On the other hand, the outlook for gold remains optimistic, with a target price of $4,900 per ounce maintained through 2026. This bullish stance is underpinned by several mutually reinforcing factors.

First, central banks worldwide are expected to continue purchasing gold. Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, central banks, especially in emerging markets, are accelerating their gold holdings. It is forecasted that these banks will continue buying about 70 tons per month in 2026, providing stable demand that supports prices.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy of rate cuts is enhancing gold’s appeal. In a low-interest-rate environment, investments in gold, which does not generate interest, become relatively more attractive, and this shift in financial conditions stimulates buying interest.

Additionally, the entry of institutional and private investors is expected to proceed with greater strength than anticipated. According to the firm’s analysis, a mere 1 basis point increase in private investors’ allocation of funds to gold could lead to approximately a 1.4% rise in overall gold prices. This high sensitivity indicates that even small increases in demand can have a significant ripple effect on the entire market, and increased interest from the private sector could substantially influence price formation.

Market Analysis: Contrasting Outlooks for Crude Oil and Gold Reflect Economic Conditions

The contrasting outlooks of falling Brent crude oil prices and rising gold prices symbolize the current market sentiment. While risk aversion is boosting demand for gold, cautiousness about economic growth is relatively intensifying supply pressures in the crude oil market. The spread between these two commodities will serve as an important indicator of future macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.