Gold price forecast indicates a long-term investment scenario toward 2030

According to the latest analysis by Incrementum, gold price forecasts are not merely market movements but reflect profound economic and political structural changes. The long-term outlook suggesting gold reaching $8,900 by the end of 2030 challenges conventional asset management frameworks and may serve as a catalyst for a fundamental reevaluation.

Currently, the bullish phase of gold is in the “general investor participation stage,” with increased media coverage and a surge in speculative interest. Historically, this stage is still in the mid-phase of a bull market, indicating that further upside potential remains.

Multiple Structural Factors Supporting Long-Term Growth

The basis for gold price forecasts is supported by several mutually reinforcing factors. As the global financial system undergoes reorganization, gold is increasingly seen not just as a commodity but as a key asset for long-term preservation.

Changes in Global Order and Currency Systems

From the Bretton Woods system to the present, the world economy has shifted from dollar dominance to multipolarity. U.S. industrial hollowing out, uncontrollable fiscal deficits, and large-scale central bank gold purchases collectively signal the advent of a new financial order. Notably, central bank gold purchases in Asia have exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, a trend expected to continue in the medium to long term.

Expansion of Money Supply and Erosion of Purchasing Power

Since 1900, while the U.S. population has increased 4.5 times, the money supply M2 has expanded by 2,333 times. This distorted growth rate implies currency dilution, justifying long-term increases in hard assets like gold. With the money supply in advanced economies growing at an average annual rate of 7.4%, the long-term upward pressure on gold prices is likely to persist.

Geopolitical Tensions and Structuring of Gold Demand

International uncertainties such as U.S.-China trade friction, European fiscal policy shifts, and the Ukraine situation heighten the importance of gold for national asset holders. Gold, as an asset without confiscation risk and counterparty exposure, can serve as a foundation for diversification in a multipolar world.

New Portfolio and Long-Term Asset Allocation Strategies

The traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds allocation model is failing in the current environment. A new portfolio structure is proposed for long-term investors to consider.

The revised model reduces the stock allocation to 45%, allocating a significant portion to previously underweighted gold-related assets. A balanced mix of 15% gold as a safe asset, 10% performance gold (silver and mining stocks) with growth potential, and 5% Bitcoin as an emerging asset class is expected to deliver better risk-adjusted returns over the long term compared to conventional portfolios.

This long-term composition offers a methodology to maintain portfolio stability and upside potential amid rapidly declining trust in traditional government bonds.

Detailed Examination of Gold Price Forecast Scenarios

Incrementum’s model analysis considers multiple scenarios.

Base Scenario projects a gold price target of around $4,800 by the end of 2030. Meanwhile, the Inflation Scenario presents an ambitious level of $8,900, heavily dependent on the inflation rate over the next five years.

The current gold price already exceeds the mid-term target of $2,942 in the base case for late 2025, indicating the market is trending closer to the inflation scenario. Over the past five years, gold has risen by 92%, while the real purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has declined by about 50%. This pattern reflects structural inflationary pressures.

Additionally, analysis using the concept of shadow gold prices is noteworthy. When the monetary base is fully backed by gold, the theoretical gold price is calculated. Under the 25% backing level from 1945 to 1971, the required price is $5,354; at 40% backing, it reaches $8,160. These figures suggest significant long-term upside potential for gold.

Short-Term Fluctuations and Long-Term Trends

Short-term adjustments are also to be expected. As shown in April’s market movements, speculative position reductions could be rapid and substantial, with technical risks of a temporary dip to around $2,800.

However, these short-term fluctuations do not negate the long-term bullish trend but are rather normal corrections within a bull market. Over the past five years, gold has maintained a steady upward trajectory, with partial corrections leading to new highs afterward.

Potential short-term risks include unexpected declines in central bank demand, sharp drops in geopolitical premiums, or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic performance. Nonetheless, the probability of all these scenarios occurring simultaneously is low.

Gold and Bitcoin: Complementarity in Long-Term Portfolios

An intriguing aspect for long-term investors is the relationship between gold and Bitcoin. The analysis suggests Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market capitalization by the end of 2030, implying about $900,000 per BTC.

While ambitious, this outlook is supported by historical asset performance comparisons. Gold offers “stability,” while Bitcoin provides “convexity (positive nonlinearities).” Combining both could yield better risk-adjusted returns than investing in either alone.

As national-level Bitcoin reserve plans materialize, the roles of cryptocurrencies and traditional metals in portfolios will become clearer.

Practical Strategies for Long-Term Investors

Investors should consider the following long-term approaches based on the projected upward scenarios for gold:

First, reevaluate the gold allocation in existing portfolios. Historically, gold, once dismissed as a non-yielding, non-productive asset, has shown remarkable outperformance during stock market bear phases. From 1929 to 2025, in 15 out of 16 major stock bear markets, gold outperformed the S&P 500, with an average relative performance of 42.55%.

Next, focus on the “performance gold” segment. Silver and mining stocks tend to follow gold’s upward trend, often lagging initially but then surging. Examining performance in the 1970s and 2000s reveals significant rebound potential in silver and mining stocks over the past decade.

Finally, maintain consistent risk management. Bull markets often experience 20-40% corrections, especially in silver and mining stocks, which can be more volatile. Gradual position building and regular rebalancing are essential to capture long-term growth while minimizing short-term shocks.

Conclusion: The Revival of Gold as a Trustworthy Long-Term Asset

Amid ongoing reorganization of the global monetary system, gold is transforming from a peripheral asset into a core strategic portfolio element. The long-term upward scenarios suggested by gold price forecasts are not mere market cycles but reflect structural and inevitable paradigm shifts.

Historical experience shows gold’s dual role as a defensive asset during economic downturns and an offensive one during inflationary periods. In today’s environment of increasing political and economic turmoil, strategic reallocation to gold is no longer optional but a necessary choice.

When constructing long-term investment plans toward 2030, positioning gold and related assets at the core of the portfolio will be key to achieving both stability and growth.