Bitcoin's bear market relative to gold is gaining momentum: what history says

Bitcoin’s positioning in a bear market compared to gold has reached critical levels not seen in recent years. The BTC-to-gold ratio has fallen approximately 55% since December 2024, when it peaked around 40.9, and is currently trading around 18.46. This weakening calls into question the long-held narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

Five-Year Lag: Gold Outperforms Digital Assets

While gold demonstrates steady growth, approaching new all-time highs near $4,900 per ounce and gaining about 12% since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin shows the opposite trend. As of January 29, 2026, the BTC price stands at $88.31K, down 12.90% year-over-year, highlighting a stark contrast between the two assets.

Over a five-year period, the performance divergence becomes even more evident. Gold has increased by approximately 160%, while Bitcoin has gained about 150%, challenging the widespread belief in the superiority of digital assets. This divergence indicates a fundamental redefinition of how investors evaluate traditional and digital stores of value.

Technical Level: 200-Week Moving Average Under Pressure

The BTC-to-gold ratio is significantly below its 200-week moving average (WMA) by about 17%. The current WMA level is around 21.90, while the current ratio is 18.46, demonstrating excessive weakness on long-term timeframes covering nearly four years of price data.

This technical weakening is particularly significant, as the 200-week moving average traditionally serves as an indicator of the long-term trend. A 17% drop below this level signals a substantial overvaluation of the relationship between the two assets and a potential continuation of the bearish trend for Bitcoin in the context of gold.

Historical Precedents: Bear Markets of 2022 and 2018

History offers sobering lessons for investors monitoring the current bear market. During the 2022 crisis, the BTC-to-gold ratio fell more than 30% below the 200-week WMA and remained in this range for over a year. Even more dramatic was a 77% decline in 2022 and an 84% decline during the 2017-2018 cycle.

The current weakening, which began in November 2024, reproduces the trajectory of previous bear markets. If history repeats itself, the ratio could remain significantly below the 200-week moving average until the end of 2026, suggesting a prolonged period of Bitcoin underperformance relative to gold.

Explanation of the 200-Week Moving Average

The 200-week moving average is calculated based on price data over a period exceeding three and a half years. This long-term technical indicator helps investors distinguish major trends from short-term fluctuations. When the ratio falls well below this level, as it is currently, it indicates a serious shift in market structure.

Other Market Movements: Accelerating Investments in Artificial Intelligence

Beyond the difficulties in the crypto market, tech giants continue to accelerate their investments in artificial intelligence development. The Q4 financial reports of Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) showed no slowdown in AI-related spending. Microsoft emphasized that artificial intelligence is now one of its key business areas, pointing to long-term growth prospects. Meta, in turn, forecasts a sharp increase in capital expenditures in 2026 to fund its Meta Super Intelligence labs and core operations.