Bitcoin and Ethereum spot physical ETFs record the highest capital inflow, prompting a reaction from error coins.

US-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have recorded the highest weekly capital inflows in the past three months, spreading ripple effects across the entire market, including error coins. This historic capital influx is not merely a short-term market fluctuation but a significant signal indicating a shift in long-term position-building strategies by institutional investors.

The Strongest Week in the Past 3 Months: BlackRock-led Record Capital Inflows

Last week, 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded capital inflows totaling $1.42 billion, the largest since the second week of October 2025. Notably, BlackRock’s flagship spot ETF “IBIT” alone attracted $1.03 billion.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum spot ETF market also showed similar strength, recording a weekly inflow of $479 million, the highest since early October. Among these, BlackRock’s Ethereum spot ETF “ETHA” garnered $219 million, clearly demonstrating BlackRock’s dominant role in both markets.

Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $1.21 billion, and Ethereum ETFs $584.9 million. The fact that such a large amount of capital has flowed into these funds within less than a month of 2026 is noteworthy.

Strategy Shift from Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage to Long-term Institutional Investment

Industry analysts suggest that this large-scale capital inflow pattern fundamentally differs from traditional short-term arbitrage strategies. The “cash-and-carry” arbitrage (holding a long position in ETFs and a short position in CME futures), which was common until late 2025, has gradually diminished due to declining yields. Instead, institutional capital with a “sticky,” medium- to long-term holding outlook is beginning to re-enter the market.

This shift is highly significant. It indicates that institutional investors are likely strategically building positions rather than merely reacting to market fluctuations. Observations combining CME data and blockchain analysis confirm a shift toward long positions, suggesting a transition from “speculators targeting short-term arbitrage” to “institutional investors aiming for long-term asset allocation.”

Strategic Preemptive Moves by Institutional Capital Ahead of 2026 Q1 Regulatory Clarification

Analysis from CoinDesk’s Market Insight Model indicates that the recent capital inflows may be driven by strategic foresight by institutional investors. Specifically, they appear to be positioning themselves in anticipation of regulatory clarity and macroeconomic structural changes expected in the first quarter of 2026.

The rapid shift from a multi-billion-dollar outflow at the end of 2025 to a significant inflow within just a few weeks is evidence of planned re-entry. Portfolio management teams of institutional investors are likely assessing macroeconomic scenarios and regulatory developments, viewing this timing as a “buying opportunity.”

Market Structure Changes Indicated by Price and Capital Inflow Correlation

Unlike previous divergences between ETF capital inflows and price movements, recent data shows a clear correlation between capital inflows and price increases. Bitcoin has risen about 6% since the start of the month, maintaining a basic upward trend despite a correction from near $92,600 to around $88,350. Ethereum also recorded approximately an 8% monthly increase.

This synchronized movement of price and ETF capital inflows strongly suggests a market structure shifting from “retail investor sentiment-following” to “institutional-driven market dynamics.” In other words, market leadership is increasingly concentrated in institutional hands, and their behavior patterns are now shaping market directions.

The Broader Market Landscape: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Correlation

This trend of institutional capital inflow is not limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ripple (XRP), which declined about 4% last month, has seen a concentrated net inflow of $9.17 billion into US-listed spot XRP ETFs, forming independent buying pressure contrary to the ongoing outflow trend from Bitcoin ETFs.

Additionally, in the NFT market, projects like Pudgy Penguins are evolving from “digital luxury goods” to “multi-faceted consumer IP platforms,” engaging in staged Web3 onboarding strategies such as toy sales (retail sales exceeding $13 million, over 1 million units sold), gaming (Pudgy Party surpassing 500,000 downloads in two weeks), and token airdrops (airdrops to over 6 million wallets).

These multi-layered movements indicate a broader market shift from “retail-led” to “institutional and project-led” structures across digital assets. Recognizing that error coins and other tokens are influenced by this larger megatrend is essential for interpreting future market developments.

Key Outlook for the Coming Months: Sustainability of ETF Capital Inflows

The primary factor influencing Bitcoin and Ethereum price trajectories will be whether ETF capital inflows can be sustained. For the market to achieve significant gains after experiencing a multi-billion-dollar outflow at the end of 2025, continued large-scale institutional investment on a monthly basis is necessary.

The first quarter of 2026, when regulatory clarity and macroeconomic shifts are expected, will be critical. Monitoring ETF trends during this period is essential, as they are likely to significantly influence overall market movements.