Trading Briefing: Night Before the Decisive Battle

Key Support Confirmation: Awaiting Volatility Release
Date: January 29, 2026
Market Overview
The current market is in a typical low-volume game state ahead of a major event window
Technical indicators have been repeatedly confirmed at critical levels
Macro and liquidity data show that main funds are conducting defensive accumulation at the bottom
Tonight's 23:30 vote will be the core catalyst to break the current balance
Focus on trading opportunities brought by volatility regression
Key Points
1
1-hour and 4-hour trend levels are in an extremely converged state
Price has tested the bottom and rebounded three times near 2864
Confirmed effective support at this level
ATR indicator shows the current extremely low volume zone
Typically indicating a subsequent large mean reversion trend
Volume has shrunk around 2950
Indicating exhaustion of bearish momentum
2
When price retraced to 2910, open interest (OI) increased
Indicating that main funds are placing orders at the bottom for accumulation and positional battles
Funding rates remain low, with no risk of long squeeze
And short leverage shows signs of loosening
Pay attention to the Gamma reversal point at 3150
Once broken, market makers will turn to buy-in support
3
Currently in a vacuum period of institutional game before Thursday’s major event
The CME gap around 3080 has attraction
Early morning volatility from the Federal Reserve has already partially priced in uncertainty
The current market is relatively clean
4
The DXY dollar index is oscillating below 97 resistance
Powell’s speech did not bring sustained strength, leaving room for risk assets
Nasdaq is supported by Meta’s positive news, offsetting Microsoft’s adverse impact
Overall macro sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish
Notably, Wall Street spot ETFs show significant net inflows at the 2900 level
5
End-of-month effect makes the 2950 options strike highly attractive
Tonight’s 23:30 vote is the most important timing node this month
Market sentiment is waiting for a definitive direction after the “drop”
6
ETH/BTC rate forms a double bottom support at the key 0.05 level
Indicating an independent alpha characteristic
On-chain data shows stablecoin issuance increased by 0.8% in the past 24 hours
Incremental funds are already in position at low levels
7
Increased activity on Layer 2 has driven the mainnet base fee up
Reverting to deflationary logic below 3000
Protocol real yield remains stable above 4%
Attracts long-term institutional funds
8
Re-staking leverage liquidation line is around 2650
Approximately 10% safety buffer from current price
Technically, client diversity is good with no single point of failure risk
9
Foundation wallet shows no movement
A slight increase in large holder positions was observed at 2910 during the dip
Developer activity peaked on the eve of the vote
Indicating confidence in the regulatory outlook
10
Trend model shows current trend strengthening with Hurst index at 0.68
State transition model indicates a 92% probability of switching from low to high volatility soon
Energy compression has reached a critical point, imminent reversal
11
2950 is the current maximum pain point for market makers
The moment the vote results are announced will break the current short-term balance
On-chain network analysis suggests that whales are forming coordinated defense buy orders around the 2864 support zone
12
The daily-level type II buy structure is close to completion
1-hour level is attempting to push towards 3142
MACD bottom divergence combined with 15-minute bottom pattern
Further confirms the safety of the 2864 structure
The target center of attraction after the vote’s vacuum period is around 3272
$ETH