The turning point of the cryptocurrency market indicated by US Bitcoin investment trusts

Important signals are emerging in the cryptocurrency market centered around Bitcoin. Large-scale outflows from the US spot Bitcoin ETF have been observed, which could be a precursor to a price rebound. According to SoSoValue data, a net total of $1.22 billion was withdrawn from the market over four days last week, marking the largest such outflow since November.

Let’s explore how the main method of cryptocurrency investment, investment trusts, is moving and the background behind these changes.

ETF Outflows Accelerate, Possibility of Bottom Formation

Weekly fund outflows were particularly prominent on Tuesday and Wednesday. Withdrawals of $479 million on Tuesday and $708 million on Wednesday were recorded. During the same period, Bitcoin prices fell by 5%, but the withdrawal of funds from this investment trust may not necessarily be negative.

Historical data shows a pattern where large ETF outflows coincide with local bottom prices. For example, in November, after a similar four-day outflow of $1.22 billion, Bitcoin bottomed around $80,000 and then rebounded above $90,000 within a few days.

Historical Patterns Indicate Price Rebounds

Looking at past cases, such massive outflows surprisingly suggest market turning points. In August 2024, amid turmoil caused by unwinding yen carry trades, Bitcoin hit a bottom near $49,000. The subsequent recovery was rapid.

Based on this historical background, the current movement in investment trusts may reflect a change in market sentiment. It could indicate that excessive position adjustments are nearing their end.

Current Price Levels and Investor Positions

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $87.88K (with a 24-hour change rate of -1.66%), and the average acquisition cost for ETF investors through investment trusts has reached $84,099. Glassnode, an on-chain analysis platform, points out that this level functions as an important support area.

Approximately 63% of the invested Bitcoin assets have an acquisition cost exceeding $88,000, indicating that the current range is a critical decision point for many investors. According to on-chain indicators, supply is highly concentrated between $85,000 and $90,000, which is the recent resistance zone. Meanwhile, support below $80,000 is relatively thin.

The movement of funds through cryptocurrency investment trusts signals both technical trends and psychological turning points. Market participants are closely watching whether the historical pattern of large outflows and bottom formation will repeat.