Gold surged intraday to $5600 per ounce, taking only 13 trading days from $4600 to $5600. Such speed is no longer a "trend," but an accelerated phase dominated by sentiment. Honestly, it looks a bit unreal.

The recent two sets of data from the World Gold Council are actually hinting at potential risks. In 2025, central banks increased their holdings by a total of 863 tons, significantly below the average of the previous three years; meanwhile, total demand for the year reached a record high of 2175 tons, mainly driven by gold ETFs and physical demand. In crypto terms, long-term holders are slowing down, while short-term holders are疯狂加仓.
Looking at these two points together, the problem becomes very clear: this round of gold has already clearly outpaced its fundamentals. Geopolitical and macro uncertainties are indeed present, but the essence of safe-haven demand is also emotional, and once sentiment spreads, it can be infinitely amplified by short-term funds. What is driving the price now is no longer the "slow money" like central banks, but the "fast money" following the trend.
When long-term positions stop absorbing, but short-term positions pile up rapidly, the entire structure becomes increasingly fragile. Prices can continue to rise, but without a pullback and consolidation to change hands, any correction will lead to even greater volatility. At this stage, the biggest risk isn't the rise itself, but the sudden stagnation.
Especially with non-ferrous metals entering a trading frenzy recently, many are leveraging more and increasing beta to chase the expanding market. Personally, I think this is the time to start reducing beta. If gold experiences a 10% or even larger correction, the impact on bullish positions in silver and other non-ferrous metals will be multiplied.
Of course, this doesn't mean it's the right time to short now. Before sentiment cools down, contrarian short positions carry huge risks. If you hold spot positions, it’s more reasonable to hedge rather than naked short for profit. Strictly speaking, at this stage, if you use high leverage on gold and non-ferrous metals without protection, you must accept the worst-case scenario—controlling position size and leverage is far more important than the direction. #金价突破5500美元