Multi-cycle Trend Forecast: Bottoming Out or Running Away?

Clear Answers by Cycle

Different holding periods require completely different operational logic. Never blindly bottom fish or cut losses; precise responses are the key!

1. Short-term (1-7 days): Decisively wait and see, refuse to bottom fish!

Bitcoin: Slight support around $81,000. If it stabilizes, it could rebound to $83,000-$84,000. If it breaks below, it will test the $80,000 level.

Ethereum: $2,636 is short-term support. If it holds, it can test $2,750-$2,780. If it breaks, it will head straight to $2,600.

Core advice: Bottom fishing now is like taking a flying knife! Short-term volatility is too high for ordinary people to withstand. Waiting and watching is the best strategy.

2. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Range fluctuation, beware of breakdown risks

Bitcoin fluctuation range: $78,000-$85,000. Key resistance at $85,000, support at $78,000.

Ethereum fluctuation range: $2,600-$2,850. Key resistance at $2,850, support at $2,600.

Core advice: Until the Federal Reserve's policy expectations ease, the market is likely to remain volatile. Once support is broken, cut losses decisively and exit. Don't hold onto illusions.

3. Mid-term (1-3 months): Buy on dips in batches, avoid full positions blindly

If the March Federal Reserve meeting signals easing, macro sentiment improves, Bitcoin may rebound to $90,000-$95,000, and Ethereum could rebound to $3,000-$3,200;

If policies continue to tighten, Bitcoin may dip to $75,000, and Ethereum could fall to $2,500.

Core advice: Build positions gradually near support levels. Avoid full positions at once. Strictly control risks.

4. Long-term (6-12 months): Stick to core logic, wait patiently for a bull market

Bitcoin: The halving cycle is the core driving force. Historical patterns show that after halving, a main bull run often occurs within a year. Coupled with long-term institutional holdings and macro stability, it could surge to $120,000-$150,000.

Ethereum: Ecosystem upgrades and institutional demand are long-term factors. If macro conditions improve, it could reach $4,000-$4,500.

Core advice: Ignore short-term fluctuations. Hold around the core logic and don't be swayed by short-term rises and falls.