Michael Saylor gets a breather from MSCI, but the board is still in motion

In the world of corporate finance, few decisions can move the market as much as those coming from entities like MSCI. And that is exactly what happened when the index provider announced on Tuesday that it would delay plans to remove companies with digital asset treasuries from its indices. The response was immediate: Strategy’s shares, a company led by Michael Saylor that has become synonymous with aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, rose approximately 6% after hours.

The move reflects a palpable relief in the market. Companies that already have significant exposure to crypto assets without directly operating in the blockchain sector faced the risk of being excluded from benchmark indices. A formal exclusion would have devastating consequences: institutional investors, many of whom are required to track specific indices, would be forced to divest, creating selling pressure on the stocks. For Strategy, with its dezenas de bilhões em bitcoin on the balance sheet, this could mean a drastically reduced valuation.

Michael Saylor’s victory: when defense works

MSCI’s decision represents a partial acknowledgment of the arguments presented by Michael Saylor and his team. The company had publicly opposed the exclusion proposal, arguing that holding digital assets as a strategic treasury component did not disqualify it from inclusion in broad indices. Apparently, this position found an audience.

Lance Vitanza, from TD Cowen, described the development as “clearly positive,” but added a crucial observation: is this a genuine victory or just a pause in execution? Mark Palmer, from Benchmark, was more optimistic. In his assessment, the company’s arguments “seem to have had the desired impact.” With a buy rating and a target price of $705, Palmer sees significant room for appreciation in Strategy’s shares.

The cautious side of the coin: the war is not over

Despite superficial optimism, analysts warn of an uncomfortable reality. MSCI has not waived its right to review its rules in the future. If the provider decides to expand exclusion criteria to non-operational companies, Strategy would face new scrutiny. Michael Saylor, even with his innovative strategy of accumulating Bitcoin as a treasury asset, is not immune to future regulatory changes.

Palmer himself recognizes this ambiguity: “the episode is not over yet.” The decision to consider exclusions sets a precedent. Future rule changes could pave the way for another attempt to remove companies with large crypto holdings from major market indices.

Implications beyond Strategy

The significance of this decision goes beyond Michael Saylor’s company. Any corporation that treats digital assets as a core component of its treasury operation is now watching closely. The outcome here sets a standard. If MSCI revisits this topic in 2026 or beyond, all these companies could potentially be impacted.

For now, moderate optimism prevails. Prices reflect relief, analysts celebrate a tactical victory. But in a market where rules can change as regulators refine their frameworks, calmness may be more fleeting than it seems. Michael Saylor and Strategy have won a round, but the game is far from over.