When gold soars, Bitcoin falls: a portrait of markets amid rising fear

Market sentiments on global markets are currently driven by one powerful trend: investors are massively shifting from risky assets to safe havens. Gold and the dollar on the gold-to-dollar chart demonstrate classic crisis-era dynamics, while cryptocurrencies have become some of the main losers. Precious metals are experiencing a spectacular surge — gold is approaching $4,500 per ounce, while Bitcoin is falling and cannot stay above the psychological level of $90,000.

This contrast has become the main story of financial markets at the beginning of 2026. While traditional assets enjoy a flow of capital from risk-averse portfolios, cryptocurrencies have fallen behind, despite seemingly favorable conditions.

Why gold is rising while Bitcoin is losing ground

The logic behind this is painfully simple: the global economy is sending mixed signals, frightening investors. Even the fact that the dollar index (DXY) fell below 98.00 and is heading toward October lows did not help cryptocurrencies recover. Usually, a weak dollar boosts risky assets — but this time, the picture is inverted.

“This happened against the backdrop of a strong rally in gold and other precious metals, as well as ongoing dollar weakening. It signals a fundamental shift in investor risk perception,” explained Alex Kupcievich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro. He emphasizes that oversold bonds worldwide also indicate this shift in preferences.

Gold and copper — polar opposites in a portfolio — are moving in the same direction, which is itself rare. This phenomenon indicates that the market is concerned not so much with growth rates or inflation, but with overall instability. Investors seeking both safety and growth seem to have concluded: Bitcoin does not meet expectations in either direction.

Cryptocurrency indices drown in red numbers

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market picture has been bleak. All 16 CoinDesk indices declined in value, with the DeFi Select index plunging 4%, and the Metaverse index losing over 3%. Of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, only two tokens — HASH and RAIN — managed to break the 6% growth barrier during this period.

Bitcoin (BTC), once the undisputed king of cryptocurrencies, is under pressure. Its price slid from attempting to break the $90,000 mark to $78.22K (down -5.46% over 24 hours), leaving bears confused and bulls in despair. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH), showed an even more dismal result: it dropped to $2.38K with a -9.66% decline for the day.

The question analysts are asking themselves: is this a temporary correction before a recovery or the beginning of a deeper reversal? Kupcievich warns: in the coming weeks, expect even more significant declines in cryptocurrency prices, including spreading risk aversion to emerging market stocks and currencies.

Macroeconomic data will become a stumbling block

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis published a preliminary estimate of GDP for Q3 2025. Most economists forecasted an annual growth rate of 3.2%, although some expected up to 3.5%. These figures indicate a slowdown compared to 3.8% in Q2 but still exceed the historical average of 2.6%, maintained since late 2021.

The crypto community’s reaction to this data is mixed. On one hand, slowing growth traditionally increases demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin. On the other hand, global risk aversion is flooding investor portfolios toward classic safe havens — and in this race, gold, as a historically proven store of value, wins.

The macroeconomic data released today also included initial estimates of basic energy consumption costs via the PCE method at 2.9%, matching forecasts. The preliminary consumer confidence index for December held at 92, reflecting restrained optimism among American consumers.

Technical analysis: signs of capitulation or rebound?

On the daily chart, Solana (SOL) shows a characteristic pattern: the price broke below the multi-week consolidation pattern’s lower boundary, then bounced back the next day, trapping bears on the wrong side. This is classic Wyckoff spring action — a phenomenon usually indicating exhaustion of seller demand and often serving as an early signal of an upcoming bullish reversal.

However, confirmation of a possible bullish reversal requires a breakout above the upper channel boundary. Current resistance levels remain critical for understanding the market’s short-term direction.

Where investment flows are heading

Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a day of capital outflows: daily net flows amounted to -$142.2 million. Despite this, the total inflow since the beginning of the year remains positive at $57.25 billion, with an overall volume of about 1.31 million BTC.

The situation with Ethereum looks somewhat brighter: spot ETH ETFs attracted $84.6 million in net inflows during the day, with total holdings reaching 6.09 million ETH and a cumulative inflow of $12.55 billion. This indicates that some investors still believe in the long-term potential of the second-largest crypto asset.

Futures funding rates also reflect tension: the BTC funding rate is 0.0046% (5.0315% annually) on major exchanges, indicating minimal leverage and cautious trader sentiment.

Global markets chart: stocks hold steady, bonds weaken

On traditional markets, the S&P 500 closed Monday up 0.64% at 6,878.49, and Nasdaq gained 0.52%, reaching 23,428.83. Futures on these indices at the start of the current trading session remain unchanged, signaling no clear direction.

Interestingly, despite some support for stocks, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 2.6 basis points to 4.145%, indicating pressure on government bonds and a shift of capital toward safer assets in the debt market. Meanwhile, gold continues to rise, reaffirming its status as the main beneficiary of current geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Gold futures increased by 1.04% and are trading at $4,516 per ounce, continuing to demonstrate strength, while silver is also gaining momentum with a 1.66% rise to $69.70 per ounce.

Cryptocurrency stocks: mixed results and losses

Crypto corporations showed mixed results. Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up 1.13% at $247.9 but lost 0.57% in pre-market to $246.49. Galaxy Digital rose 2.54% to $24.61, and Circle Internet increased 1.01% to $87. However, these are local successes amid sector-wide weakness.

Mining companies’ results were less attractive. Core Scientific closed the day at $15.79 with a minimal gain of 1.22%, while others remained stable at low levels. Riot Platforms lost 0.69%, ending at $14.4.

Key Bitcoin metrics and market dominance

Bitcoin’s market dominance remains at 59.58%, practically unchanged. However, this masks deeper issues: the Ether-to-Bitcoin ratio decreased by 0.24% to 0.03388, reflecting weakening of alternative assets.

Bitcoin’s hash rate (seven-day moving average) reaches 1,051 EH/s. Note that over the past 30 days, the largest hash rate decline since April 2024 occurred, which some analysts, including VanEck, interpret as a countertrend signal, potentially indicating miner capitulation and approaching local lows (not highs).

The spot hash price has fallen to $37.27, and open interest in CME futures stands at 112,885 BTC — indicating modest institutional participation in futures markets.

Events in DAO and crypto project governance

Three major decentralized organizations are conducting important votes. Yearn DAO votes on rotating multisig signers (YIP-89) and adopting a plan to restore yETH (YIP-90), which uses treasury bond yields and redirects 10% of income to refund users. Voting ends December 23.

GMX DAO considers allocating $400,000 USDC for deployment on Solana, using half for purchasing GMX tokens and creating a balanced initial liquidity pool.

Aave DAO is embroiled in governance disputes, voting on restoring full ownership rights to branded assets (domains, social accounts, naming rights) from service providers like Aave Labs, transferring them under DAO control to prevent private abuse. This conflict contributed to an 18% weekly drop in the AAVE token.

Why this moment matters

The current contrast between gold and Bitcoin is not just a technical correction. It reflects a fundamental reassessment by investors of their priorities. When traditional gold surges and crypto assets retreat, the picture of economic uncertainty becomes impossible to ignore.

Gold has historically served as a fear gauge in markets, and its current rally, against the backdrop of the gold-to-dollar chart, shows that investors are overestimating the risk landscape. Analysts warn: if this trend continues, we may see an even greater capital shift from cryptocurrencies to traditional safe-haven assets in the coming weeks.