The Battle for Energy in Bitcoin and AI Data Centers Heats Up: Why M&A Deals Will Still Accelerate in 2025

As the hype around AI bubbles reaches a fever pitch, a different voice is emerging from Wall Street’s trading floors. Investment bankers have observed that Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies and AI infrastructure developers are facing increasingly fierce competition for energy resources, driving a wave of mergers and acquisitions. By the end of 2025, this trading frenzy not only shows no signs of cooling but continues to intensify.

Energy Shortages Drive the Trading Boom

According to Joe Nardini, head of investment banking at B. Riley Securities, regardless of whether Bitcoin prices hit record highs or AI enthusiasm returns to rationality, the market’s fundamental logic remains unchanged: these compute-intensive industries require large amounts of reliable electricity.

“The fundamental reason M&A transactions continue,” Nardini pointed out in an interview, “is because people still need electricity.” This statement may be succinct, but it captures the core of market reality. Bitcoin mining requires electricity, AI computing needs electricity, and high-performance computing (HPC) also depends on electricity.

After Bitcoin’s halving event, this dependence on energy has become even more urgent. Halving cuts miners’ rewards in half, and even with Bitcoin prices holding at $78,000 (latest data as of February 2026) or higher, many miners’ profit margins are severely compressed. Under this pressure, an increasing number of Bitcoin miners are turning to another approach: deploying AI and HPC infrastructure within existing facilities to achieve higher return multiples. Nardini observed that Bitcoin mining companies making this shift have seen significant valuation increases and can access capital at lower costs.

Meanwhile, the energy demand from the AI and HPC markets is “even greater.” Data centers with GPU-ready facilities attract numerous tenants with strong creditworthiness, willing to pay premiums to secure energy supply.

$/MW: The Pricing Accelerator

In this energy competition, a key metric has emerged that has completely changed asset valuation methods: dollars per megawatt ($/MW). This indicator directly reflects the value of each unit of electrical capacity.

Based on Nardini’s analysis, under current market conditions, high-quality power resources and data center assets in advantageous locations are valued at astonishing levels per megawatt. He noted that in some negotiations, data center assets are valued at over $400,000 per MW, and in certain cases, even reaching $450,000, depending on negotiation progress and asset quality.

More extreme cases exist: Nardini has seen assets priced between $500,000 and $550,000 per MW. What do these sky-high prices reflect? Scarcity of premium, immediately available computing capacity.

In contrast, data centers in less favorable locations or markets with weaker appeal are priced much lower. These assets may be valued at only $100,000 to $250,000 per MW, with buyers discounting heavily due to power quality or location disadvantages.

The huge gap between these price ranges vividly illustrates the current scarcity of energy resources. This scarcity is accelerating M&A activity.

Diversified Buyers: From Tech Giants to Mining Transitions

A noteworthy phenomenon is the increasingly diverse and expanding roster of buyers participating in this energy race.

Traditional players include hyperscalers (large cloud infrastructure providers), AI companies, and Bitcoin miners. But recent developments show that more non-traditional participants are entering the scene. Among the deals Nardini has seen, sellers include former industrial facility owners; he even encountered a 160-year-old industrial plant converted into an energy-rich data center, making it a hot asset.

In an extreme case, a private seller’s data center attracted interest from about 25 potential buyers across various fields: Bitcoin miners, hyperscalers, AI startups—all requiring NDA signing before substantive negotiations. This multi-buyer competition has directly driven up asset valuations.

Behind this phenomenon lies a strategic divide: asset owners face a key choice—sell to hyperscalers or AI developers to obtain cash and certainty; or transform into data center developers to benefit from ongoing leasing income.

Nardini observed that some traditional industrial facility owners see this opportunity and are converting idle or underutilized industrial buildings into modular data centers with energy capacity. One example is a client converting an old office building into a data center, now building a “30 MW module” and seeking additional financing to expand.

Even more aggressive leasing arrangements have emerged: in at least one negotiation, tenants are willing to pay rent before the facility is fully delivered. This underscores the current scarcity of premium energy capacity.

Outlook for 2026: Bright Prospects with Caution

Looking ahead to 2026, Nardini remains optimistic. He believes that if interest rates continue to decline, a “risk asset preference” environment will form, which is highly favorable for the entire data center and energy infrastructure transaction ecosystem.

He candidly admits that, as an investment banker, he might be somewhat promoting his own business interests. But his optimism is not unfounded; it is based on genuine market signals he hears from the front lines of deals.

In conversations with senior executives of data centers and Bitcoin mining companies, a simple logical chain repeatedly emerges:

Are there tenants? Yes. Are their credit qualities good? Yes. Are rental prices attractive? Yes.

Based on these fundamentals, the conclusion is clear: “Market demand still exists.”

However, this optimism is not without risk warnings. Nardini explicitly points out a red line: if developers cannot lease their constructed facilities or cannot secure the rental prices they need, that would be a real concern. Currently, he has not heard any such alarms.

In fact, some data points reinforce this optimism. Hut 8, a Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company, recently signed a contract to provide 245 MW of IT capacity to Fluidstack, with a 15-year term valued at $7 billion. After the announcement, Hut 8’s stock rose 20%.

These transaction data suggest that, “despite some recent stock sell-offs, these companies still achieve good valuation multiples and have the capacity to raise capital under attractive valuation terms and levels.”

Nardini’s final assessment is firm: “Demand for data center energy and AI high-performance computing infrastructure continues unabated. Developers with data center capacity are seeing substantial demand from qualified tenants willing to pay good rents, maintaining the core economics of the entire business.” In short, “buyers of energy and energy providers are still actively trading at the end of 2025, and this heat is expected to continue into 2026.”

All of this indicates that, even as AI industry enthusiasm faces rational skepticism, the fundamental need for energy and infrastructure has become a solid foundation supporting this ecosystem. As long as energy remains scarce, transactions will not stop.