The market is in a delicate equilibrium: silver trading surges while Bitcoin faces a balancing dilemma

The cryptocurrency derivatives market is playing out an unexpected drama. While Bitcoin hovers around $78.07K and Ethereum has fallen as much as 19.95%, a traditional commodity—silver—has surged unexpectedly on decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Behind this phenomenon lies a fundamental shift in market risk appetite and investors’ genuine fear of macroeconomic uncertainty. Bitcoin is not being abandoned; rather, the market has entered a defensive ekuilibrium state.

Silver Revolution on Hyperliquid—A New Focus in the Derivatives Market

On Hyperliquid, a perpetual contract trading platform, the trading volume for the silver contract SILVER-USDC has approached $1 billion in daily trading, a figure that shocks industry insiders. According to CoinGecko, the 24-hour trading volume for silver contracts reaches approximately $994 million, even surpassing mainstream crypto assets like Solana and XRP.

More importantly, these data reflect the underlying market structure. The open interest in silver contracts remains around $154 million, while the funding rate stays slightly negative— a key market signal. Unlike the traditional crypto bull market, which is usually accompanied by positive funding rates and increasing leverage, this configuration indicates that participants are more engaged in volatility trading and hedging risks rather than directional speculation.

Silver has already overtaken assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether in Hyperliquid’s rankings, ranking just behind BTC and ETH. This rare occurrence in decentralized exchanges not only reflects a shift in trading volume but also reveals that market participants are leveraging crypto derivatives infrastructure to execute macro trading strategies.

Bitcoin’s Ekuilibrium Defense: Why BTC Stalls at $78K Instead of Rising Further

While silver trading is intense, Bitcoin’s performance appears somewhat subdued. BTC is oscillating around $78.07K, with a seven-day decline of 11.10%, indicating a subtle balance of forces—what we call “defensive ekuilibrium.”

According to on-chain data analysis from Glassnode, multiple factors contribute to this ekuilibrium. First, the delta of spot trading volume has sharply turned negative, meaning sellers are actively offloading even during short-term rebounds, creating downward pressure. Second, several key demand sources have significantly waned.

Key signals of demand exhaustion include:

Inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs has cooled markedly, removing an important support pillar from institutional buying. The decline in open interest in derivatives suggests leveraged investors are shrinking their positions, lacking positive expectations for upward movement. Irregular fluctuations in funding rates reflect a serious lack of consensus among market participants on the direction. The volatility skew in options markets has risen, indicating traders are increasing protective positions against downside risks.

All these signals converge into a market reality: Bitcoin has not experienced a crash-driven sell-off, but it also lacks the momentum to drive a rally. It is trapped in a defensive ekuilibrium—neither plunging nor advancing aggressively.

The Truth Behind Ethereum’s Continued Weakness

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s situation is even more bleak. ETH is currently trading around $2.32K, with a seven-day drop of 19.95%, nearly double Bitcoin’s decline. This relative performance difference reflects a deeper issue: the shift in market risk appetite is not specific to crypto assets but is a systemic avoidance of all high-beta assets.

Traders are moving away from volatile, high-risk exposure assets and seeking capital preservation. Under this market psychology, Ethereum, as the core asset of the DeFi ecosystem, with its high beta, has become one of the first targets of sell-offs.

Quiet Macro Hedging Flows—Funds Moving from Risk Assets to Safe Havens

The most direct explanation for the surge in silver trading is not internal to the crypto market but stems from changes in the global macro environment. Traditional safe-haven assets—gold—have risen about 15% over the past 30 days, with a cumulative increase of over 50% in the past six months. This persistent flow into safe assets reflects deep concerns among investors about geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and currency instability.

Interestingly, this macro hedging logic is now being executed through crypto derivatives channels. The abnormal activity of silver on Hyperliquid essentially represents investors using the high liquidity and 24/7 trading features of crypto exchanges to establish traditional commodity positions. Compared to traditional precious metals exchanges, crypto platforms offer more flexible and faster execution.

Market Snapshot: Key Asset Performance During Asian Trading Hours

From real-time data, the current market panorama is clear:

Bitcoin remains narrowly ranged around $78.07K with light trading volume, reflecting how cautious positioning limits upward momentum. Ethereum at $2.32K shows even more weakness, indicating systemic pressure on high-volatility assets. Gold continues its breakout trend, further reinforcing the “flight to safety” trend. The Nikkei 225 index in Asia remains relatively calm amid rising US tariff expectations, reflecting cautious pricing of policy uncertainties.

The Hidden Story Behind Silver’s Anomaly—Crypto Exchanges as a Macro Risk Indicator

The sudden surge in silver trading volume should not be interpreted as a shift in crypto market hotspots but as a macro trend indicator. Bitcoin is not being abandoned; instead, it is being placed into a controlled ekuilibrium—holding positions but avoiding aggressive leverage.

The logic behind this is straightforward: when the global macro environment is filled with uncertainty, geopolitical risks escalate, and inflation expectations are unclear, investors tend to adopt hedging strategies. Previously, such demand was mainly met through traditional financial markets’ commodity futures and precious metals trading. Now, crypto exchanges are becoming a new arena for macro risk trading.

The explosion of silver trading on Hyperliquid signals that crypto infrastructure is no longer just serving crypto price speculation but is gradually evolving into an important tool for global macro trading. As this trend continues, Bitcoin may remain in an ekuilibrium state—neither highly optimistic nor completely abandoned, but used by the market as a component of risk management frameworks.