BTC update Monday: There are a few system issues we need to pay attention to:

- Long-term BTC liquidity (2 years) is in the 50k range; however, I don't think it will fall to this level in the next few days or weeks, but rather it will reach this level around October or November 2026 (this is just my personal opinion).
- I myself warned about the 4-year cycle ending at the 125k range back in October 2025, and the downtrend started from that point, not just now.
- The 74k range is close to the cost of production, and according to past data, BTC will continue to test this area in the next few days. In the past, BTC has tended to pump back when it enters this area.
- The US has replaced Chairman Jerome Powell, and therefore the money printing plan may be activated (and this is bullish for BTC).
In short, there are two long-term trends. The price is being calculated, showing both bullish and bearish sides. From my personal perspective, I assess BTC as bullish in Q1 and Q2, and bearish in Q3 and Q4.

In the short term, the 70k-74k range will be a highly contested liquidity zone, making significant volatility inevitable. We need more time to monitor the situation until the liquidity map becomes clearer before we can have a medium-term outlook. This contested zone means long, strong, and highly erratic candlestick movements, so we should avoid trading or, if trading, manage our capital very carefully.

This is not investment advice.

In short, this is a risky trading zone, and the real picture is still unclear. My view is that BTC will experience a medium-term rebound before falling further to the 50k region in October 2026.