Soybean Meal Futures Show Resilience Amid Mixed Market Signals

The soybean complex delivered a nuanced trading session in late January, with soybean meal futures capturing market attention through notable gains even as the broader commodity space remained under pressure. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price held steady at $9.94 per bushel, establishing a neutral baseline as traders digested competing signals from supply and demand dynamics. This measured market response reflects the delicate balance between immediate harvest realities and longer-term fundamental drivers shaping the sector.

Soybean Meal Futures Climb While Oil Contracts Weaken

Soybean meal futures demonstrated strength by advancing 60 cents to settle at $4.80 per ton, signaling robust appetite for this protein-rich feedstock. This upward momentum in soybean meal futures contrasted sharply with soybean oil, which surrendered 11 to 23 points as energy markets and competing vegetable oil supplies weighed on prices. The divergence between these two components reveals an important market narrative: demand for livestock feed remains supportive, while oil prices remain vulnerable to broader commodity and energy pressures.

Across the futures curve, contract performance varied by maturity. The March 2026 soybean contract closed marginally lower at $10.64 (down half a cent), while nearby cash beans remained flat at $9.94. Deferred contracts painted a different picture, with May 2026 soybeans climbing 1.25 cents to $10.76 and July 2026 advancing 1.75 cents to $10.89, suggesting the market is pricing in tighter supply fundamentals as the calendar advances.

Export Sales Data Signals Ongoing Global Demand

The USDA reported a private export sale of 192,350 metric tons of soybeans to undisclosed destinations during the morning session, underscoring persistent international interest. Market participants now await this Friday’s official Export Sales data release, with consensus expectations pointing toward soybean sales between 1.5 to 3 million metric tons for the week beginning January 15. The prior week’s cumulative announcements totaled 1.403 million metric tons, indicating a moderately healthy export pace.

Soybean meal futures and related products also face export scrutiny, with meal sales estimated between 200,000 and 500,000 metric tons in the reporting week, while soybean oil export expectations range from 5,000 to 25,000 metric tons. These figures suggest balanced but not excessive export demand across the commodity complex.

Brazil’s Expanding Crop Underpins Global Supply Outlook

Brazil’s agricultural picture continues to command global attention as the world’s second-largest soybean producer. Industry association ABIOVE raised its Brazilian soybean crush estimate by 2.5 million metric tons year-over-year to 61 million metric tons, reflecting both crushing demand and underlying crop adequacy. More significantly, the group projects Brazil’s 2026 soybean crop at 177.12 million metric tons—a substantial harvest that will meaningfully shape international supply balances and potentially exert pressure on soybean meal futures pricing dynamics.

Export forecasts amplify this picture: ABIOVE estimates Brazilian soybean exports at 111.5 million metric tons for the 2026 season, representing a 3.3 million metric ton increase from the prior year. Such growth reinforces soybean meal futures traders’ concerns about downstream pricing pressure, as expanded Brazilian supplies will ripple through global soybean meal futures markets and affect domestic U.S. pricing strategies throughout the coming year.