Quantum Computing Insiders Have Effectively Served Up an $840 Million Red Flag to Wall Street

The quantum computing sector exploded into headlines during 2025, with four pure-play stocks delivering astronomical returns that captivated retail and institutional investors alike. Yet beneath the surface of these sensational gains lies a troubling pattern: company insiders—the executives and board members who presumably know their businesses best—have been systematic net sellers of their own stock, collectively liquidating more than $840 million in shares over the past three years while barely purchasing any equity. This selling spree, documented through Securities and Exchange Commission Form 4 filings, served up a stark signal about insider confidence that deserves investor attention.

The Stunning Rally That Captured Wall Street’s Attention

The four quantum computing stocks at the center of this story—IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), and Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT)—experienced explosive appreciation in 2025. On a trailing 12-month basis during select periods, these stocks soared by as much as 5,400%, easily overshadowing even the artificial intelligence sector’s remarkable run.

Several catalysts fueled this investor enthusiasm. The addressable market opportunity is genuinely substantial: utilizing specialized quantum computers to solve problems beyond classical computing’s reach could reach $1 trillion by 2035, according to industry analysis. Beyond the macro opportunity, high-profile partnerships amplified market excitement. Amazon’s Braket service and Microsoft’s Azure Quantum platform both offer subscribers access to IonQ and Rigetti quantum computers, providing early-stage revenue and validation. D-Wave partnered with Classiq to collaborate with Comcast on quantum solutions for broadband network optimization. Additionally, JPMorgan Chase’s announcement of a $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative, which specifically identified quantum computing as a strategic sub-area, provided another catalyst for investor confidence.

Wall Street analysts amplified the bullish narrative by projecting triple-digit annual sales growth. Rigetti’s revenue is expected to climb from under $8 million in 2025 to $152 million by 2029, while D-Wave Quantum’s full-year revenue is projected to expand from less than $26 million to $219 million over the same timeframe.

The Contradiction: Massive Gains Masking Insider Skepticism

Here’s where the narrative takes a concerning turn. According to Form 4 filings covering the trailing three-year period through early January 2026, quantum computing insiders have shown minimal conviction in their own companies:

• IonQ: $460.8 million in net selling activity
• Rigetti Computing: $53.5 million in net selling activity
• D-Wave Quantum: $292 million in net selling activity
• Quantum Computing Inc.: $33.2 million in net selling activity

This represents approximately $840 million more in cumulative insider selling than buying—a dramatic imbalance that cannot be easily dismissed.

To be fair, some context matters. Executives and board members typically receive substantial compensation in stock and options. Selling portions of their holdings to satisfy tax obligations or to diversify personal wealth is routine and doesn’t necessarily signal concerns about their company’s prospects. However, this context only applies to the selling side of the equation.

The critical insight emerges when examining insider buying activity. While executives have legitimate reasons to sell shares, the only rational motivation to purchase additional shares is confidence that the stock price will appreciate. Over the same three-year period, insider buying has been virtually nonexistent across these four companies. Quantum Computing Inc. and Rigetti Computing recorded zero insider purchases. D-Wave Quantum’s buying activity amounted to a single 82-share transaction worth $2,195. This absence of insider conviction—despite spectacular gains and glowing partnership announcements—serves as a powerful counterbalance to the market’s enthusiasm.

What History Suggests About Astronomical Valuations

The four quantum computing stocks trade at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios that, by historical standards, cannot be justified by fundamentals. Even using analyst projections from 2028 or 2029, their valuations remain in territory typically associated with speculative bubbles.

This pattern has played out repeatedly over the past three decades. Every transformative technology—from the internet bubble of the late 1990s to the biotech boom of the early 2010s—required years or decades to mature. While quantum computing possesses real-world use cases theoretically, the practical application phase likely remains years away. The technology must overcome significant hurdles around cost-efficiency and practical problem-solving before it can meaningfully compete with classical computing for mainstream applications.

The recipe for bubble formation looks familiar: transformative technology with legitimate long-term potential, early investor excitement, high-profile partnership announcements, and astronomical valuations completely disconnected from current financials. Add to this mix the glaring absence of insider buying at current prices, and the pattern becomes even more disconcerting for equity investors.

The Bottom Line for Quantum Computing Investors

The quantum computing opportunity may ultimately prove real and substantial. However, the actions of company insiders—or more accurately, their inaction—have raised legitimate concerns about whether current prices reflect reasonable expectations or speculative excess. An $840 million net selling imbalance combined with virtually no insider purchasing activity sends a clear message: those closest to these businesses don’t appear convinced that current stock prices offer attractive risk-reward profiles.

Before committing capital to quantum computing stocks, investors should carefully weigh the transformative potential of the technology against the skepticism demonstrated by those who understand these businesses most intimately.