2.3 Cycle Review Post - The last chance for aerospace people this year. If it doesn't work out, we'll fully band together for the trend.

[Taogu Ba]

Market Overview

Rebound but with decreasing volume, still maintaining a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan.

There isn’t enough time to open a new cycle here; only 8 trading days left.

However, the volume still meets the standard for starting a new cycle.

Unless in the next few days, the volume continues to shrink, entering the pre-holiday market, and volume drops below 2 trillion yuan,

then the real group buying of stocks to cross the year-end妖 (fantasy/monster) will begin.

Profit Effect

Peak, tomorrow is the continuation of the peak at market open.

The normal expectation is a continued divergence, with the strength of the divergence depending on the market performance and volume.

超预期 (beyond expectations) is a continuous peak, with consistent continuation.

Emotional Cycle

This is quite complex. If on Monday there is no major market crash,

even if gold and silver hit the limit down, it should still be in a chaotic mode here.

But there is no “if.” If on Monday, it continues to hit the freezing point + freezing point,

then the previous decline, after some correction, indeed enters a retreating tide with a secondary decline.

So today, Tuesday, the tide of sentiment has ended, and a new chaotic structure has begun.

Theme Cycle

New themes: Capital circle, bidding for two one-word stocks, neither has fermented this theme.

So, it’s still oscillating within the old cycle.

AI hardware, overseas + domestic sectors, institutions + performance expectations,

AI software + robotics, Spring Festival Gala expectations,

Commercial aerospace, major national equipment, hype and bragging expectations,

Commodities,

Chemicals, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, oil, coal,

Geopolitical risk hedging, US dollar credit collapse hedging,

Commodities have weakened.

The resonance index of big technology—no one concedes to anyone.

Here, focus on one theme. The current volume is very unlikely to sustain unless all other themes are drained and exhausted.

Either that, or some direction has good news, fermenting and rotating back and forth.

Hustling until after the New Year, fermenting a completely new logic, and making a big surge.

Style and Bias

Most likely, the main trend will be upward, with secondary support from consecutive limit-ups.

Quantitative Era
Objectively, you can’t beat quantitative trading; only human subjectivity can surpass it.
My subjective view is:

AI applications, the extended phase four, and the big second wave of commercial aerospace are all beyond-expectation scenarios.

The normal expectation here is:

In each hot sector, select the top recognizable stocks; the probability of forming recognizable groupings is higher.

Western Materials
Zhejiang Wenlian
Lior股份

Somehow, I can also recognize a core group with high cohesion.

For in-depth learning, you can visit the blogger’s homepage.

Below are many publicly available articles full of practical insights.

Collection of Practical Articles (a large number of useful articles) directory

Historical review of emotional cycles, learn from history to understand rise and fall, directory

Video explanation of emotional cycles—everyone says it’s good, maybe you should watch it too?

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Disclaimer: I am only recording my own operations and do not force everyone to follow suit. Please be cautious. This blog only records my own actions.
(Investing involves risks; trading requires caution. Plans are never faster than market changes. Everything follows the market. The content is based on personal ideas and records,
documenting my understanding of the market for personal sharing only, not investment advice. Use at your own risk!)