The rise and fall of the tide, inspired by personal feelings

Current Holdings: Satellite ETF, Photovoltaic ETF, Zhejiang Wenlian, Xinwei Communications, Aerospace Electronics, Aerospace Development [Taoguba]

Satellite ETF: Keep holding
Photovoltaic ETF: Keep holding
Zhejiang Wenlian: After so many days, it’s finally in the green.
Xinwei Communications:
Aerospace Electronics: Losing money, haven’t broken even yet.
Aerospace Development: Bought at the high point on Friday, and it’s also in the green today.

Although the overall market rose pretty well today, the actual position is relatively low, less than 40%. This is also because the position in individual stocks is low, so there hasn’t been much operation in the past two days, and I haven’t been watching the market much. Just muddling through a few days.

Last week, aerospace showed signs of recovery, but was immediately overshadowed by the surge in non-ferrous metals, which drew funds away from aerospace-related sectors. After the non-ferrous metals surged, they dragged the market down, affecting overall sentiment. But despite dozens of stocks hitting the limit down yesterday, aerospace and applications didn’t fall much; instead, they formed a contrarian grouping. Today, with sentiment warming and news-driven factors, they surged again, making this market truly bizarre.

Yesterday, I thought with so many stocks hitting the limit down, today should see fewer, expecting 20-40 stocks to hit the limit down. On Wednesday, sentiment would pick up again. I didn’t expect today only 9 stocks hit the limit down, which was a surprise. The rebound was better than expected, missing by a day, so the position didn’t rise before the rebound.

In the past few days, I haven’t done much trading or watched the market much. I was out playing, only returning home after 3 a.m., and lying down after 4 a.m. Because I planned to trade in the afternoon, I didn’t set an alarm and slept until 11 a.m. When I woke up and looked at the market, I saw the main index opened high and then fell, but most aerospace stocks performed well, so I didn’t pay much attention (since aerospace adjustments take longer, if it recovers, it could be a major theme, and even if it pulls back today, it should recover tomorrow). So I continued sleeping, got up around noon for a meal, then after eating, I played on my phone, planning to nap until the close and buy some stocks, but I ended up sleeping through the entire session and missed the chance to act at the close.

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Although I haven’t done much trading or watched the market these days, I’ve been thinking about the recent market characteristics:

1. During the main theme, divergences tend to turn into consensus easily, leading to quick sell-offs and continuous surprises. (Holding positions is the best choice)
   For example: Aerospace Power, I kicked it out multiple times, along with various other sectors, with many sell-offs.

2. When sector ETFs have huge divergences (the same applies to sectors), if the next day can’t turn stronger and the opening price is below expectations, it often leads to a retreat. (Stocks with huge volume weakness on that day are sold off, and if the sector’s opening price is below expectations the next day, it tends to follow the retreat)
   For example: On Thursday, the non-ferrous metals sector and ETFs had huge divergences, and on Friday, non-ferrous metals stocks opened with many limit downs.
   For example: Aerospace and applications also had huge divergences and many stocks hit the limit down the next day.

3. Retreat: When the main upward trend is very strong, the retreat can be equally fierce. Avoid stocks that haven’t reduced their limit-down days in the first 3-4 days.
   For example: Fujian retreated for 4 days
   For example: Aerospace retreated for 4-5 days
   For example: Non-ferrous metals retreated for 2-3 days

4. On the day of recovery: During retreat, popular sectors, resilient stocks, and contrarian stocks tend to rebound well on the recovery day.
   For example: Applications, after retreat, Zhejiang Wenlian, Blue Focus, Lio股份, etc.
   For example: Aerospace, after retreat, Xinwei Communications, Western Materials, Julli Sockets, etc.

5. During the main rise, sectors absorb funds from other sectors. When the main sector retreats, the previously drained sectors tend to rebound after recovery.
   For example: Aerospace and applications absorbed funds from the entire market, then rebounded later, while other sectors also rebounded, but aerospace and applications fell sharply.
   For example: Resource stocks driven by non-ferrous metals also drained funds from other sectors, and today they rebounded, with the market generally recovering.

6. After reaching extreme lows, if sectors show signs of stabilization or reversal during the rebound, you can buy more on dips until the rebound peaks, then sell.
   For example: Aerospace fell sharply for 4-5 days, then rebounded for 2 days, with many stocks bouncing over 10 points, some even showing resilience before the rebound, with double-top expectations. The same applies to aerospace electronics, Western Materials, applications, etc.

7. The retreat phase: the peak of the rebound is a good selling point.
   For example: Aerospace recovered for 2 days, then opened lower and declined the next day.

8. During the main sector rise, sector ETFs are good arbitrage tools. Their volatility can sometimes exceed individual stocks. During a main rise, if you can’t pick stocks, just buy ETFs. But because main theme ETFs are volatile, the same applies during retreats—they can be traded like stocks to earn an average premium.
   For example: Satellite ETF, Media ETF, Non-ferrous ETF, Gold ETF

Summary: Currently, quantitative trading accounts for an increasing share of market transactions, and market dominance is strengthening. During the main rise, don’t call the top (compared to the big picture); during the retreat, don’t call the bottom (compared to quick moves). During retreats, even ETFs can lose over 20%.

During the main rise, blindly buy the strongest stocks with the highest gains—higher is safer. Even if caught at the top, most can be recovered in 1-3 days (except during retreats). When there are no signals of sector retreat, there’s no need to watch intraday charts—just hold patiently. Similarly, during retreats, don’t care whether a stock is a leader, mid-cap, anti-fall, or rebound stock. When retreat signals appear, just sell without fear of missing the top or selling at the lowest point. If you don’t sell now, be prepared for continuous limit-downs later. Especially for mid-cap and rebound stocks accelerating downward, the fall can be rapid and continuous. The best move then is to clear positions with one click and rest for 3-4 days before re-entering.

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Popular sectors or sub-sectors (shared):

Computing power and applications:

Non-ferrous metals and chemicals:

Rockets, satellites, space photovoltaics:

SpaceX:

Tomorrow’s Expectation:

The index finally had a big bullish day today, but it resonated mainly with commercial aerospace, with no new themes, which is a bit disappointing. The good news is that the aerospace development龙虎榜 (top list) shows some funds returning, and the sector also pulled back to the 30-day moving average for a rebound. The current setup is: strong index rally + sector pullback to the 30-day line + sentiment warming. It shouldn’t just be a one-day rebound, so I plan to go all-in on aerospace tomorrow (it should have been done today, but I didn’t, and I missed the initial move). Previously, applications and aerospace moved together; as aerospace rebounded, applications should follow. Also, non-ferrous metals released liquidity today, so some correction is expected tomorrow. These three sectors can be observed.

Actually, many popular stocks in aerospace have fallen near the 30-day or 60-day moving averages and rebounded. These stocks are worth watching because if there’s a second wave in the sector, these stocks could rebound more sharply. If you’re worried about high prices, look for previously popular stocks and observe those that have stabilized at the 20-day, 30-day, or 60-day moving averages.

Tomorrow’s Plan:

Western Materials: SpaceX concept, with volume breaking through new highs, minimal resistance. If the opening price is below 3%, buy immediately.
China Satellite: A major sector stock, already fallen significantly. If there’s a second wave in aerospace, it’s essential. Buy at the opening below 9:25.
Blue Focus: Buy at the opening below the bid price.

Anti-nuclear: Hunan Silver, Silver Non-ferrous Metals. If the opening price at 9:25 is below -7%, I plan to buy anti-nuclear stocks. Ideally, the stock opens at limit down before 9:25, with a turnover of over 1 billion, the higher the better, but the opening price must be below -7%, preferably between -7% and limit down. Because anti-nuclear stocks are about cost-effectiveness and intraday gains, if they open above -5%, the value drops. I won’t consider those.

Position Management:

Satellite ETF: Buy near 0% for T+0 trading.
Photovoltaic ETF: Buy near 0% for T+0 trading.
Xinwei Communications: Buy near 0% for T+0 trading.
Aerospace Electronics: Buy near 0% for T+0 trading.
Aerospace Development: Buy at 0-3% for T+0 trading.
Zhejiang Wenlian: This stock often gaps up and then drops or hits the limit. If it can continue the streak, hold; if not, sell.

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Basic Education (ongoing updates):
I used to share some basic lessons in comments because I think most short-term traders have some foundation. Last month, I wrote a very basic article, which surprisingly got over 200 likes, many tips, and nearly 100 bookmarks—something I didn’t expect. Previously, I poured my heart into sharing trading philosophies and strategies, but few liked or bookmarked. Now I realize that people without a basic foundation can’t understand my writings. (Damn, no one reminded me!) I will gather some basic articles for beginners to help them understand my content better later.

💡 Resistance and support levels, generally suitable for T+0 trading (T+0 technicals)
💡 Exploiting rebound and arbitrage, just the basics, will add more later
💡 Entry points for a sector’s trading cycle
💡 Sector rotation strategies
💡 Data to watch during daily auction
💡 Stock selection based on chart patterns
💡 Chart pattern imitation
💡 Finding patterns through data analysis (timing trades)
💡 Key nodes in sentiment cycles and trend style control
💡 Hot sector convertible bonds + ETF arbitrage
💡 Continuous board rally, sentiment prediction (using mental models, data-driven timing)
💡 Using review data to set expectations for the next day (institutional trend)

Thank you all very much for your support and tips!

Creating content is not easy. Thanks again for tips, likes, and comments. If this article helps you, please support with tips, likes, and follow for full support.