[Red Envelope] Which is the strongest in the ice point forecast? Small group Yu Ge gathers again at Aerospace Development! Is the second wave still expected or just a guise for quantitative fulfillment

Today, I won’t dwell on the usual; instead, here’s a core-focused review. Students who finish reading, please like/donate/cheer more, after all, yesterday and today, before the market opened, I repeatedly and clearly reminded everyone about the ice point opportunities and specific directions. I believe those who grasped these opportunities in the past two days won’t have a bad market trend.

[Taoguba]

First, on the index level, I still maintain the original view: “Volatility Structure”
At the 4000-point bottom of the box, the closer to it, the more attention to ice point opportunities; the more it falls, the more to buy
At the 4150-point top of the box, the higher the rise, the more attention to high-level risks; the more it rises, the more to sell;

This is the basic rhythm, and today the index is clearly closer to the bottom of the box at 4067, so in the short term, I am not pessimistic.
But we need to control the rhythm for tomorrow. Why? Because today we see the market has already surged in 4856 stocks, with popular themes like technology, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and precious metals all generally rising today. If before the Spring Festival, the market remains weak and the volatility structure unchanged, then any sudden surge or underwhelming bidding tomorrow could easily be collectively realized through quantification.

So, for tomorrow, pay attention to “divergence after the climax, weak days leaving strong, cautious observation”

When to observe cautiously until, what signals still present opportunities?!

The only point that can strengthen the market’s ice point recovery today is “incremental volume”

Therefore, the first thing to observe is the trading volume. If there is no increase in volume tomorrow, most surges or underwhelming bidding are risks, easily realized through quantification, lacking follow-up funds. Conversely, if there is an increase in volume, weak divergence presents a buying opportunity for the core.

Next, focus on whether the intraday strength of commercial aerospace can continue to strengthen. The core is anchored on aerospace development and giant rigging. Both over- and under-performance tomorrow will impact the market. After all, the recent weak quantification trend’s biggest feature is that the strongest theme today cannot continue tomorrow, leading to direct realization of divergence. If commercial aerospace also diverges tomorrow and cannot continue, the market remains the same.

Still following the style of “watch fan rotation, quick in and out, no pattern, position-controlled participation, no sustainability, high consensus easily realized through quantification”

Even if the market strengthens again recently, there’s a high probability that the third day will see larger-scale quantification realization. For example, at the end of January, commercial aerospace surged for three consecutive days on Thursday and Friday, then a wave of large-scale limit-downs on Monday. This is not worth betting on tomorrow because most of the chips have already been taken on Monday and Tuesday. The next step is more sell than buy.

Regarding themes, as we discussed at noon:

The first wave in the morning saw aerospace strengthen with a jump, followed by a second wave with a bottoming tech rebound. The subsequent trend is straightforward: observe the rotation of three profit-making effects on the market:

First, the general expectation of a second wave of aerospace. Today, aerospace development hit the limit-up, and tonight, teachers are likely to hype the second wave. Tomorrow, it may also be reflected through quantification, so I maintain my original view on aerospace: prepare for the worst, compare it with AI applications, and expect a double top in the oscillation structure. The difference is that AI applications are expected to have no limit-up, following a route of continuous rise to a double top, while commercial aerospace directly hits the high limit-up with high consistency. The results may differ, so pay attention—prefer divergence over consensus.

For entry points, compare with AI applications, such as Blue Cursor and Zhejiang Wenlian, which show a trend of rising two days and adjusting one day. Entry points are during each deep intraday correction. The same applies to aerospace: the entry points are during intraday divergence, and more importantly, by observing individual stocks’ initiative today, distinguish the front runners like Aerospace Development, which previously hit the limit-up, from weaker stocks that hit the limit-up later. Are you still anxious in front of this screen?

Second, technology. The same view applies: if the index is expected to reach 5000-6000 points, then in the short term, following the index’s oversold rebound offers a bottom-of-trend opportunity. Try to buy during divergence and sell during large recoveries. Buy with solid logic, buy support lines, and wait for rotation. The key is to do high sell low buy, for example, today tech surged again, and if it hits a high deviation from the five-day moving average, it’s time to reduce within the pattern. If it adjusts or shows rotation expectations, it’s a good time to absorb within the pattern, following a rolling approach.
Yesterday, within the pattern, I first paid attention to tech rotation during the ice point, and today, the idea succeeded, once again demonstrating a breakout case.

Finally, the weekend repeatedly emphasized sentiment, groupings, and alternative routes. Over the weekend, I clearly shared stock names: Hongbaoli, Julli Rigging, Zhejiang Wenlian, Aerospace Development—all of these had a small climax today. Going forward, watch for divergence. Among these, aerospace and group strength are strong; for tech, watch for opportunities during corrections. Tech is strong, group is strong, and divergence in aerospace indicates rotation, and so on.

As for precious metals, I analyzed over the weekend that the upcoming futures are likely to be volatile, so the risk is relatively small. The key is whether it can form a double top after continuous declines like AI applications. If only considering arbitrage, funds should prioritize 20cm, just like AI applications, where Zhitai New Materials and Blue Cursor moved first, and aerospace stocks like Chaojie and Xinwei moved earlier, then the main board. When the market has no expectations, the probability of a breakout is higher.

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