Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Market adjustments may provide new opportunities for layout! Is refining the petrochemical sector the next hot spot?

CITIC Securities: Moving from Virtual to Real, Emphasizing the Spread of Price Increase Clues

The current round of ETF redemption wave is basically over, and the rally in large-cap stocks is entering a repair window. The style shift on a macro cycle level is happening, from small caps to large caps, from thematic to quality. Wosh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair represents the policy intention of “America’s move from virtual to real.” Whether or not this idea is successfully implemented, it will have a significant impact on the style of global risk assets. From the perspective of A-shares, shifting from resource-driven to cycle-driven, the full development of price increase clues may span the first quarter. The underlying commonality of cyclical sectors is large profit margin repair space, driven by China’s policy shift from expanding scale to improving quality and efficiency.

The underlying investment approach should still focus on re-evaluating China’s competitive advantage industries in the context of global pricing power. The core positions in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, new energy remain valid, but increased caution is needed for precious metals sectors with more obvious speculative attributes. The recovery of consumer and real estate chains should occur in spring, which is not opposed to manufacturing and technology sectors.

Huatai Securities: Shifting to a Win Rate Mindset

Last week, A-shares fluctuated at high levels, with value stocks outperforming. Looking ahead, there are many constraints on the rise in risk appetite before the holiday: externally, Kevin Wosh’s potential appointment as Fed Chair, given his previous reputation as a hawk on inflation, has led to a rise in the dollar and US bond yields, pressuring risk assets; internally, as the market expands into low-valuation sectors like liquor, the speed of rotation increases, making it harder to capture excess returns, with technical adjustments and profit-taking during the long holiday increasing. However, the core driver of this spring market has not fundamentally changed. The probability of success increased after the Spring Festival until the Two Sessions, providing a new window for deployment if the market corrects.

In the short term, the market is likely to remain volatile, with the spring rally continuing. It is recommended to lower expectations for slope and shift to a win rate mindset, continuing to rotate into high-quality, low-position stocks: 1) From a fundamental perspective, sectors with high prosperity, some sustainability, signs of bottoming or improvement, such as power equipment, storage, semiconductor equipment, chemicals, engineering machinery, agriculture, and beauty; 2) From a thematic perspective, focus on AI applications, humanoid robots, and other catalysts from early February to the Spring Festival; 3) From a style shift perspective, moderately increase allocations in non-bank financials and cyclical dividends, and consider deploying consumer and travel chains benefiting from the long holiday at lows.

Shenwan Hongyuan: Starting a Range-bound Market

After the spring market ends, before the next upward phase begins, a consolidation phase is likely. The core of this phase is waiting for clearer clues on the next stage of industry trends, digesting earnings, and easing valuation and capital structure conflicts. There will be a new upward phase in the second half of 2026, driven by cyclical improvement, new technological industry trends, residents shifting assets into equities, and China’s influence becoming more prominent. The strong structural market in 2025 will be led by cyclical alpha and AI computing power. The second phase of the rally still offers opportunities for cyclical alpha, with the extension of the cycle possibly involving advanced manufacturing and the reversal of outbound investment dilemmas. The AI industry chain may gradually shift toward application end. Therefore, medium- to long-term prospects remain optimistic for prosperity tech and cyclical alpha. Prosperity tech focuses on overseas computing power chains, AI applications (the industry trend of AI application realization phase, with Hong Kong internet stocks possibly regaining leadership, and Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares), semiconductors, energy storage, robotics, and commercial aerospace. Cyclical alpha focuses on non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals.

Galaxy Securities: Sector Rotation Before the Holiday May Be the Main Theme

In January, manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line again, reflecting ongoing insufficient effective demand. Wosh’s nomination as Fed Chair caused significant external market shocks. However, liquidity support for A-shares continues, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, market activity remains high. In the short term, the market is likely to remain structured and volatile, with frequent style switches, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals.

Sector rotation is expected to remain the main theme before the Spring Festival, with attention to structural opportunities within rotation. Main theme one: technological innovation. In the short term, focus on rotation and catch-up opportunities among sub-sectors. Previously strong themes like commercial aerospace and AI applications are catalyzed by industry trends, but internal differentiation may increase. Main theme two: manufacturing and resource sectors with clear profit recovery paths. The volatility in non-ferrous metals has increased, and earnings forecasts support strong fundamentals, so look for short-term correction opportunities. Auxiliary theme one: consumer goods benefiting from policies like old-for-new, with renewed policy support for services and consumption, creating deployment opportunities in consumer sectors driven by domestic demand. Auxiliary theme two: outbound trend driving corporate profit expansion.

Guojin Securities: From Monetary Aspects to Industry Narratives

The reasons for the recent correction in non-ferrous metals commodities and stocks are due to the reversal of the narrative “dollar credit loosening + liquidity easing expectations” following the appointment of Fed Chair nominee, with profits taking after reaching historical highs. Copper and aluminum, which have industry demand, are better than gold, which only opposes the dollar. “Decline in dollar credit” is not the only support for the physical asset system built over the long term. When this narrative faces a phase challenge, it coincides with the period of industry pricing.

Recommendations: First, shift the revaluation logic of physical assets from liquidity and dollar credit to low industry inventories and demand stabilization. The “oil dollar” system will be reinforced, with a recommended order: crude oil and shipping, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium. Second, bottom-reversal assets with global comparative advantages and confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as chemicals (petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide). Third, the consumption recovery channel benefiting from “capital inflow + easing of domestic residents’ balance sheet shrinkage + inbound trend,” including duty-free, hotels, food and beverages. Fourth, non-bank financials benefiting from market expansion and bottoming long-term asset returns.

BOC International: Low-Position Sector Rotation, but Major Cycle Shift Not Yet

After the previous acceleration, the market is reassessing the weight of “trend” and “volatility” in the non-ferrous sector. In 2026, the non-ferrous industry will still benefit from the resonance of financial attributes and industry trends, with short-term corrections potentially offering better long- and medium-term deployment opportunities. Sector rotation is accelerating but has not yet reached a major cycle shift point. The current “low-position weight” stocks and the situation in 2014’s “Stage 4” with incremental funds still differ significantly; for example, the lack of a strong brokerage-led rally, the absence of “Belt and Road” concepts capable of driving “construction,” and most importantly, the lack of the scale of incremental funds seen at the end of 2014. Previously pressured low-position sectors are finally entering a phase of absolute gains. From the perspectives of valuation and capital structure, these sectors are now in a window attracting “left-side and long-term funds” to deploy.

Everbright Securities: Focus on Earnings, Hold Stocks Through the Holiday

The current spring market remains promising. In the coming months, both policy and fundamentals may bring positive news. However, market performance may not be smooth; before the Spring Festival, a brief period of consolidation is likely. After the previous oscillation, a phased adjustment often occurs. Still, it is recommended to hold stocks through the holiday. After the festival, trading activity is expected to pick up again, and combined with high-frequency data and industry hot topics, a new rally may follow.

Currently, focus remains on two main lines: growth and pro-cyclicals. The growth line benefits from sustained industry heat and increased risk appetite during the spring market. The pro-cyclicals benefit mainly from strong commodity prices and policy support. Additionally, industries with good annual report performance are worth attention. Under the five-dimensional industry comparison framework, top sectors include electronics, electrical equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications & computing, mostly aligned with growth and independent prosperity directions.

Western Securities: Heavy Refining and Chemicals, the Next Non-Ferrous

Confidently bullish on non-ferrous metals, liquor, heavy refining, not solely based on micro-industry changes but also on capturing the core underlying drivers: the flooding of dollar liquidity will intensify. During Kondratiev’s depression, the expansion of national currency credit cracks led to a super cycle in commodities, with gold, industrial metals, oil, and agricultural products rising sequentially.

Following the big rise in gold and industrial metals, in 2026, global oil prices are expected to surge, driving a revaluation of chemical prices. Heavy refining will replicate the upward path of non-ferrous metals, and due to its lower position and later start, its future upside may be even larger. The rise in non-ferrous metals is just the first half of the super cycle. In the more flooded liquidity phase, heavy refining will absorb spillover upward momentum from precious and industrial metals. Chemicals could become the next non-ferrous sector. Buying heavy refining now is like buying non-ferrous last year. In 2026, Fed QE will become a “trump card”: the flood of dollar liquidity from QE will intensify, strengthening the super cycle of commodities; it will also open up policy space for Chinese central bank QE to debt, with China returning to the Kondratiev depression phase, a prosperity period for catching-up countries. The overall trend of A-shares will reach “new highs,” with recommended industry allocations in non-ferrous, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing.

Zhongtai Securities: Mid-term Structural Uptrend in Commodities Unchanged

The core logic supporting the current rise in commodities, including geopolitical games, the rigid demand from AI + industrial upgrades, and structural supply-demand gaps, has not fundamentally changed. As short-term panic subsides and capital congestion returns to a reasonable range, sectors will revert to fundamentals-driven growth, maintaining mid-term upward momentum. It is advised to focus on systematic expansion themes and avoid consumption-related varieties.

First, the main recommended directions are those with sustained demand growth and strong certainty, including geopolitically benefited assets like precious metals, copper, aluminum, new energy metals, power equipment; key varieties for military and computing expansion like rare earths; energy supply security assets like energy storage and lithium batteries; long-term energy substitutes like photovoltaics, nuclear power, and space computing centers. Crude oil, driven by geopolitical events, is highly volatile and offers trading opportunities but lacks long-term holding value, so beware of post-event corrections. Second, cautious attention or avoidance should be given to demand-elastic varieties with weak logic and insufficient sustainability, such as black metals, pork, high-end white wine, and luxury goods, which are more rebound-driven. Lastly, from a tech valuation perspective, companies more related to systematic production efficiency should be valued higher; thus, US stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, Google may have higher valuations than Meta, and Hong Kong stocks like Alibaba may outperform Tencent and ByteDance, significantly better than Pinduoduo and Meituan.

Zheshang Securities: Continue to Be Bullish Strategically, Moderate Structural Adjustment

Last week, the market continued to “cool down,” with clear style shifts. Looking ahead, after three weeks of strong performance, the tech growth sector is entering a high-level consolidation following the rhythm of the large index; meanwhile, the strongest non-ferrous resource sector has also experienced two-way fluctuations amid global resource price swings. The spring offensive launched in mid-December last year and the continuous rise of tech growth and resource sectors have come to an end. The market is likely to enter a relatively strong oscillation before the Year of the Horse. In terms of allocation, based on the judgment of “style switching, growth taking a rest, and a short-term bullish outlook,” it is advised that medium-term holdings withstand short-term fluctuations, maintaining a “systematic slow bull,” but with moderate control over portfolio flexibility.

In terms of industries, focus on sectors with limited downside and considerable upside potential, and upcoming timing for the securities sector, as well as some banks above the annual line and social services with good technical patterns and relatively low positions. Additionally, Hong Kong stocks have gained less during this rally, so if suitable retracement opportunities arise, they can be further increased.