Lean Hog Futures Show Mixed Tuesday Performance as Seventy-One Thousand Head Fewer Than Last Week

LiquidationKing · 2026-02-04T01:09:10+00:00

The lean hog futures market exhibited mixed trends, with nearby contracts declining while distant months gained strength. USDA slaughter data revealed a significant year-over-year drop, influencing market dynamics. The CME Lean Hog Index rose despite nearby contract weakness, indicating stable sentiment. Overall, the market reflects uncertainty with cautious optimism for future supply dynamics.

LiquidationKing

2026-02-04 01:09:10

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The lean hog futures market displayed divergent price action on Tuesday, with nearby contracts posting modest to moderate declines while more distant months showed strength. The most notable development came from USDA slaughter data: federally inspected hog slaughter for Monday was estimated at 426,000 head—representing a significant drop of seventy-one thousand head compared to the same Monday a year prior, though still 71,000 head below the previous week’s volume.

CME Index Gains While Nearby Contracts Face Weakness

The CME Lean Hog Index continued its upward trajectory, recording another 76-cent gain on January 16 to reach $81.76. This strength in the index contrasted with the nearby lean hog futures, which declined 7 to 20 cents across different contract months. USDA’s national base hog price was not published Tuesday morning due to limited trading volume, preventing a more complete market picture.

Speculative positioning showed only modest shifts, with funds increasing their net long position by just 766 contracts as of January 13. The total lean hog net long now stands at 82,624 contracts, suggesting relatively stable sentiment despite the recent price weakness in front-month futures.

Pork Cutout Value Climbs While Primals Show Mixed Results

Cattle market fundamentals remained supported by USDA pork carcass cutout value, which rose 10 cents to reach $94.30 per cwt from Tuesday morning’s report. However, the strength was not uniformly distributed across all primal cuts. The loin and picnic primals were the only cuts to finish lower, indicating selective weakness in specific meat products even as overall cutout value appreciated.

Forward Contract Pricing Reflects Market Uncertainty

Looking ahead, the February 26 Hog contract traded at $88.075, down $0.200, while the April 26 contract settled at $95.125, off $0.075. The May 26 Hog contract bucked the downside trend, posting a $0.500 gain to trade at $99.225. This pattern of front-month weakness combined with back-month strength suggests market participants are cautiously optimistic about longer-term supply dynamics, even as immediate term selling pressure persists.

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