Hog Prices Surge on Improving Market Sentiment and Supply Dynamics

The pork commodity market showed notable strength this week, with lean hog futures advancing across multiple contract months. The rally reflects improved demand conditions and a shift in market sentiment, driven by a combination of supply adjustments and pricing improvements throughout the value chain.

Price Performance Across the Market

USDA’s national base pricing for hog came in at $85.13, reflecting a significant increase from the previous trading session. The CME Lean Hog Index climbed further, reaching $82.03 and continuing its upward trajectory. In the front contract months, lean hog futures ranged from steady to 45 cents higher, with the February contract settling at $87.850. April hog futures closed at $95.600, up 0.425 from the previous close, while May contracts advanced to $99.275.

The broader pork processing sector also reflected this bullish tone. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value increased 51 cents per cwt to $93.98, indicating improved returns at the processing level. While certain primal cuts, specifically the butt and picnic primals, faced downward pressure, the overall cutout value supported the case for higher hog prices moving forward.

Supply-Side Adjustments Support the Rally

Slaughter volumes provided additional context to the market dynamics. Federally inspected hog slaughter totaled 495,000 head for the week, bringing the cumulative weekly total to 1.404 million head following a minor downward revision. Supply remains below both the previous week’s pace and the comparable period last year, down 77,000 head week-over-week but up 64,132 head versus the prior-year comparison.

These supply patterns help explain the sustained strength in commodity pricing. With slaughter volumes running lighter than recent historical comparisons, the balance between supply and demand has shifted favorably for producers, supporting the upward movement in both cash and futures prices across the hog market complex.