Topic of actions: Key support test — the cryptocurrency market remains under the influence of fear, with a 40% chance of growth / 60% chance of decline, and BTC is approximately 76,418.8 USDT, remaining the main risk indicator. If support at 74,000–74,500 USDT holds, a rebound to 78,000 USDT is possible; otherwise, a decline to 72,000 USDT is likely.

Fear index: (

Bullish scenario: The return of ETF inflows, accumulation by long-term holders, and increased institutional interest could trigger a short-term rebound above 78,000 USDT. RSI in oversold territory and volume stabilization indicate a slowdown in the decline.
**Short-term buy 📈**
Entry: from 75,000 USDT, 30% allocation
Stop-loss: 74,000 USDT
Take-profit: 78,000 USDT

Bearish scenario: Continued institutional selling and high payment flows on exchanges, as well as the dominance of short positions (long/short ratio approximately 1.9:1 in favor of shorts), create downward pressure on the price.
**Short-term sell 📉**
Entry: from 77,800 USDT, 30% allocation
Stop-loss: 79,500 USDT
Take-profit: 72,000 USDT

In addition, the market sentiment remains cautious, with high volumes of short positions and persistent selling pressure from large players. If the support levels break, a further decline could be expected, potentially testing lower support zones around 70,000 USDT. Conversely, if buying interest increases and the support holds, a reversal to higher levels may occur, especially if macroeconomic conditions improve or positive news emerges.

Market sentiment: )

Traders should monitor the volume and RSI indicators closely, as they can signal potential reversals or continuation of the current trend. The overall outlook remains cautious, with a slight bias toward bearishness unless significant buying momentum appears.