[Trend Report] Space Photovoltaics Expected to Become the Next Growth Blue Ocean Photovoltaic Equipment May Face Revaluation

The three major indices of the A-shares market closed with mixed performances today. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85%, reclaiming the 4100-point level. The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index rebounded from its lows and closed slightly down by 0.4%. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, slightly lower than yesterday. Industry sectors experienced more gains than declines, with coal, photovoltaic equipment, aviation airports, glass and fiberglass, mining, and real estate development leading the gains. Gold, cultural media, gaming, internet services, and semiconductor sectors saw the largest declines. In individual stocks, over 3,200 stocks rose, with more than 70 hitting the daily limit**.**

Recently, there have been rumors that Elon Musk’s team has secretly visited several Chinese photovoltaic companies, inspecting projects involving equipment, silicon wafers, and battery modules, with a focus on companies using heterojunction and perovskite technology routes. In response to these rumors, a reporter contacted the leading photovoltaic module manufacturer JinkoSolar Energy to verify. A staff member responded that the company has indeed had recent contact with a visiting delegation related to Musk’s team, who inquired about the company’s technological reserves and production equipment, but details about cooperation intentions and specific inspection activities are not disclosed. The staff member also revealed, “Mainstream domestic photovoltaic companies have also been inspected”.

Previously, Elon Musk has repeatedly supported space-based photovoltaics. At the Davos Forum, Musk praised China’s photovoltaic industry achievements, stating that China’s annual solar capacity exceeds 1000 gigawatts, with energy storage enabling stable power supply up to 250 gigawatts, equivalent to half of the United States’ annual electricity consumption. To address the slow growth of ground power infrastructure, Musk proposed a solution involving “deploying solar energy AI data centers in space.”

CICC (China International Capital Corporation) stated that under the booming development of commercial spaceflight, space photovoltaics, as a core upgrade to power systems, is moving toward a new stage of technological advancement and industrialization driven by large satellite constellations. Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the explosive growth in global space energy demand and the accelerated restructuring of U.S.-China supply chains, space photovoltaic demand could become the next blue ocean for growth.

CICC: Recommends Seizing the Full Industry Chain Transformation Brought by Space Photovoltaics

Under the rapid development of commercial spaceflight, space photovoltaics are a key upgrade to power systems, advancing toward new phases of technological and industrial delivery driven by large satellite constellations. As China’s low Earth orbit satellite constellations enter intensive deployment and the power of individual satellites continues to increase, coupled with new applications like space computing, it is recommended to focus on the full industry chain transformation brought by space photovoltaics and to continue monitoring the rapid implementation in manufacturing sectors.

Guosheng Securities: Space Photovoltaic Demand Could Become the Next Blue Ocean for Growth

Driven by the explosive growth in global space energy demand and the accelerated restructuring of U.S.-China supply chains, Chinese photovoltaic companies with spaceflight certification, technological validation, and large-scale delivery capabilities are transitioning from “ground support” to “space-based core,” and space photovoltaic demand may become the next blue ocean for growth.

Caixin Securities: Commercial Spaceflight Spurs New Trends in Photovoltaic Industry Development

The trend of commercial spaceflight is here. In the future, communication satellites are expected to adopt lower-cost P-type HJT photovoltaic cells or perovskite tandem photovoltaic cells to meet commercial development needs, creating new industry development trends in photovoltaics.

Guojin Securities: Expect the Sector to Rejuvenate by 2026

Elon Musk has directed the spotlight on space photovoltaics across the entire photovoltaic sector. Besides the core driver of significantly exceeding planned capacity and timeline targets, some companies’ earnings forecasts, such as “asset-liability sheet clearing,” will further boost stock prices. The sector is expected to see a renaissance by 2026.

JiaoYin International: The Market Size of Space Photovoltaics Will Heavily Depend on the Speed of Launch Cost Reduction

The global commercial space industry is rapidly expanding. With explosive growth in AI computing power demand, space data centers are expected to drive demand for commercial spaceflight. Photovoltaics are the most cost-effective power solution in space activities, with clear advantages over ground-based photovoltaics. If launch costs drop sharply, making space data centers cheaper than ground solutions, annual launch capacity could see explosive growth. The market size of space photovoltaics will heavily depend on the rate of launch cost reduction.

Fangzheng Securities: Perovskite Cells Are Long-Term Likely to Become the “Ultimate Solution” for Space Photovoltaics

The main technological routes for solar arrays include gallium arsenide, P-type HJT, and P-type HJT/perovskite tandem layers. Currently, gallium arsenide solar cells are mainstream. They feature high-temperature resistance, radiation resistance, high conversion efficiency, and lightweight design, but their high cost (accounting for 15-20% of satellite manufacturing costs) and rigid substrates limit large-scale application. In the medium to long term, P-type HJT cells are expected to gradually penetrate low Earth orbit missions due to their ultra-thin, high power density, and radiation resistance advantages. Meanwhile, perovskite cells, with their high theoretical conversion efficiency, low cost, and high flexibility, are long-term candidates to become the “ultimate solution” for space photovoltaics.

(This article does not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk. The market carries risks; please invest cautiously.)

(Source: Dongfang Caifu Research Center)