Institutions: It is expected that the "small non-farm" growth will slow down and will be significantly lower than the January non-farm employment figures.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that independent macroeconomic research firm Continuum Economics’ North America senior economist Dave Sloan stated that the ADP employment change for January is expected to increase by 30,000, a slowdown from December’s 41,000. At the same time, the ADP report data is expected to be significantly lower than the non-farm payrolls for January, as we anticipate the overall non-farm employment to grow by 85,000 in January. December’s ADP data was roughly in line with non-farm payrolls, but recent ADP data has often been weaker, with the average over the past six months being 22,000 below non-farm payrolls. Although the gap has narrowed compared to September and November, it is expected to widen to 50,000 in January. Non-farm employment in January is expected to rebound from recent weakness in the retail sector, which has had little impact on the ADP data. The detailed ADP data for January is expected to show slight improvement in the goods-producing sector (especially construction), but a slowdown in the service sector growth. The recent trend of ADP data underperforming compared to non-farm payrolls is most evident in the service industry, with notable discrepancies in education and healthcare sectors. (Jin10)