Understanding the Surge in Eggs So Expensive: From Bird Flu to Supply Collapse

The grocery store egg section tells a troubling story: empty shelves stare back at shoppers, and the cartons that remain bear prices that shock even the most seasoned bargain hunters. The cost of eggs has reached levels not seen in recent history, with a dozen eggs averaging $4.16 in December 2024—a staggering 37% increase year-over-year. To put this in perspective, overall grocery prices rose just 1.8% during the same timeframe. By early 2025, wholesale prices had climbed to $6.55 per dozen, a figure that would have seemed unthinkable just three years earlier. In January 2022, the wholesale cost sat at merely 94 cents.

This dramatic shift has forced a reckoning across America’s food supply chain. Some grocers have begun rationing cartons to customers, imposing purchase limits to manage the scarcity. The affordability crisis sparked public discourse at the highest levels, with Vice President JD Vance fielding questions about when grocery staples—a central campaign issue for the Trump administration—might finally become accessible again.

Why Are Eggs So Expensive Right Now?

The answer lies not in energy markets or broad inflationary forces, but in a biological crisis spreading through the nation’s poultry farms. While egg prices typically rise seasonally at year’s beginning due to increased winter baking and holiday demand, what the U.S. is experiencing now far exceeds normal fluctuations.

The primary driver is an ongoing bird flu catastrophe. The H5N1 strain entered the United States during the early COVID-19 pandemic period and has never fully retreated. Since January 2022, the virus has infected more than 145 million poultry across the country, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The mathematics of poultry farming ensures devastating consequences: when a single bird tests positive, the entire flock must be culled immediately as a preventive measure. For some farmers already hit multiple times by successive waves, this has meant rebuilding operations from scratch repeatedly.

Data reveals the scale of the current catastrophe. Since November 2024 alone, more than 30 million chickens raised specifically for egg production have been eliminated due to bird flu. This concentration of losses in the egg-laying flock—rather than broader poultry for meat production—creates a direct, immediate impact on consumer prices.

Historical comparison underscores how severe the current outbreak has become. During the 2015 bird flu wave, approximately 50 million poultry were killed total, and egg prices climbed from roughly $2 to $3 per dozen over several months. By spring 2016, prices had already normalized below pre-outbreak levels. The current outbreak, spanning from early 2022 through 2025 and continuing into 2026, has proven several times worse in both duration and intensity. As the virus persisted through 2025 without clear containment, prices failed to retreat to historical norms.

The Ongoing Ripple Effects Across Consumer Markets

The consequences extend beyond the price tag. Limited supply has created regional shortages, forcing retailers to implement purchasing restrictions. Some states have experienced particularly acute egg scarcity, with wholesale channels drying up as remaining producers struggle to meet demand while managing viral threats.

Consumer behavior has adapted to scarcity. Shoppers now face difficult choices—purchasing expensive eggs or seeking substitutes. Bakers and food manufacturers dependent on eggs as essential ingredients have had to recalibrate recipes and pricing strategies. Restaurant chains have quietly adjusted menu offerings to reduce egg-dependent dishes or absorbed rising costs directly into prices.

What Lies Ahead for Egg Prices?

The trajectory remains uncertain. While earlier forecasts suggested prices might stabilize by late 2025, that projection has not materialized. The H5N1 virus continues spreading without signs of slowing, suggesting supply constraints will persist into 2026. Poultry farmers face a grueling timeline to replenish flocks lost to culling—a process taking months to complete—while simultaneously managing ongoing viral threats to new birds.

Policy responses have been limited. Proposals to accelerate energy production or reduce regulations, while potentially affecting food production costs long-term, offer no immediate relief to the egg shortage itself. The problem is fundamentally biological, not regulatory.

Until the bird flu outbreak is contained or the virus naturally weakens, consumers should expect eggs to remain considerably more costly than the sub-$2 prices many remember from the pre-2022 era. The question is no longer whether eggs will become expensive—that has already happened. The more pressing question is how long Americans will need to endure these elevated prices while poultry populations gradually recover from one of agriculture’s most damaging viral crises in recent memory.