Oscillation. Livermore: 2.4 Review Record

StrawberryIce · 2026-02-04T12:09:04+00:00

The market continued to rebound today, but a slight pullback is expected tomorrow. Trading volume remains at 2.5 trillion, and the market is in a rotation phase, so short-term trading should be cautious. The overall trend diverges from the US stock market and is more influenced by Musk's comments. Stock differentiation is obvious, so be mindful of selling pressure at high levels.

StrawberryIce

2026-02-04 12:09:04

Abstract generation in progress

Simply put, today’s market situation. [Taogu Ba]

For two consecutive days, there has been a rebound trend, and even this afternoon, brokerages experienced a rebound. After the rebound, there was no rapid decline, which is a positive sign. However, the current market conditions do not warrant excessive expectations. After two days of continuous rebound, the market is still likely to enter a consolidation phase. Tomorrow is expected to see a pullback, but the magnitude of the correction will not be too large. The probability of maintaining sideways consolidation until the Spring Festival is higher.

From a capital perspective, as long as the market maintains a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan without further shrinking, it can basically sustain itself. This level of volume in the current market is only enough to support rotation phases; a large-scale rebound is unlikely to occur. Additionally, be cautious of some upward surges: after continuous rises, even if the overall market increases, these individual stocks will face significant selling pressure. Before the New Year, no one will hold high-position chips, so they will gradually exit at high levels.

When the market enters a rotation phase, based on the current short-term trading atmosphere, the probability of a rebound tomorrow is high if today’s market declines. Conversely, if today’s market rises, a correction tomorrow is more likely. This creates a short-term battle between bulls and bears. Whether it’s themes or individual stocks, trading should follow this logic. Themes can continue, but within the same theme, stocks will show very clear differentiation.

The current market situation is very strange: it does not follow the US stock market, but it does follow Musk’s statements and actions. Previously, it was anchored to Trump; now, it’s anchored to Musk. The themes and stocks that can rise are purely speculative at this stage, so don’t expect too much upside.

When the market declines, there’s no need to panic; a rebound will come soon. When the market rises, don’t get overly greedy, or profits will be wiped out.

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