Bitcoin Chart Warnings: Long-Term Holders Are Losing Momentum

The current price of Bitcoin at $73,870 tells a different story than it did just a few weeks ago. When BTC was hovering near $89,500, the chart hinted at something beyond this quiet stability that many overlooked — an underlying tug-of-war happening beneath the surface. Technical signals and sequential data now reveal what the charts were warning about: buyers have lost control, and the market is heading downward.

Beyond Stability: Doji Candles and Rising Wedges Tell a Different Story

During the past three daily sessions before the breakdown, the chart displayed doji candles with thin bodies and long wicks — signs of genuine hesitation rather than healthy balance. Sellers are pressing from below, and buyers are trying to defend themselves too late. Neither side is gaining full control. This behavior appeared at the boundary of an ascending wedge — a price structure trending upward but constraining movement and prone to collapse when it fails. When the structure actually failed, the bearish projection pointed toward $77,300 — a figure very close to the current price of $73,870, confirming the chart’s accuracy in outlining a potential downward path. These candles silently warned of buyer weakness, and the warning has been validated.

Exponential Moving Average: A Warning Sign on the Chart

When Bitcoin lost its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on January 20, it marked a critical moment. This indicator gives more weight to recent prices, making it highly sensitive to short-term changes. The last clear break below this average was on December 12, when the price dropped about 8%. This time, Bitcoin attempted resistance and only declined about 5% before temporarily stabilizing. But the stability didn’t last. Doji candles indicated that buyers were slowing the decline rather than reversing it. The clear chart was saying: “This isn’t a bottom, but a temporary pause before a bigger collapse.”

Hidden Pressures: Who Is Selling Bitcoin Now?

Wondering about the real reason behind this weakness? The answer lies in multiple layers of on-chain data. Long-term holders — those wallets that have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more — are still net buying, but the pace of accumulation is rapidly slowing, raising concerns. On January 19, these holders added approximately 22,618 BTC. By January 23, the net daily purchase had fallen to around 17,109 BTC — a 24% decrease in just four days. Price support exists but is diminishing quickly.

The Current Equation: Long-Term Holders Less Strong, Miners Selling More

The real problem isn’t just weak buyers; it’s the emergence of a new, strong selling pressure from another source. Miners — the “lesser-known” counterparty in this equation — have started selling in increasing amounts. On January 9, miners were reducing their holdings by about 335 BTC daily. By January 23, this number had risen to approximately 2,826 BTC — more than eight times the selling pressure in two weeks. Why? Fee revenue collapsed. In May 2025, miners earned about 194 BTC in monthly fees. By January 2026, that had dropped to around 59 BTC — a 70% decrease. When revenues fall, miners push harder on sales to cover operational costs. And that’s exactly what’s happening now, with the chart reflecting this pressure before the sequential data numbers fully show its impact.

Additionally, whales — the large wallets — have begun distributing their holdings. The number of whale addresses increased from January 9 to January 22, then started gradually decreasing. This indicates early distribution rather than aggressive liquidation, but it adds extra downward pressure.

Critical Price Levels: Where Is Bitcoin Heading?

Various forces are now contending at very sensitive levels. If Bitcoin can close a daily candle above $91,000 — a scenario that’s distant now — it could regain the 20-day EMA and avoid collapse. But that requires a 24% rise from current levels.

On the other hand, danger is much closer. If the rising wedge support at $88,500 breaks, the next levels are $84,300 first, then $77,300 — and we are already near that level. The chart has proven its accuracy in outlining this path.

The current scenario indicates continued downward pressure. As long as long-term holder buying slows and miners keep selling, these negative levels become more likely. The chart has been warning from the start — and the market has finally listened.