The CME FedWatch tool shows an extremely low probability of rate cuts in January, with only a 2.8% chance that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates by 25 basis points. This means there is a 97.2% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged during this month. For March, the probability of a cumulative cut slightly increases to 15.5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current monetary policy remains dominant at 84.1%. The probability of two consecutive (50 basis point) reductions during that period is virtually nil, representing only 0.4%. These data suggest that markets expect a more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve in the coming months.
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The CME FedWatch tool shows an extremely low probability of rate cuts in January, with only a 2.8% chance that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates by 25 basis points. This means there is a 97.2% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged during this month. For March, the probability of a cumulative cut slightly increases to 15.5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current monetary policy remains dominant at 84.1%. The probability of two consecutive (50 basis point) reductions during that period is virtually nil, representing only 0.4%. These data suggest that markets expect a more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve in the coming months.