Currently, it is the weekend, and the market is about to face a major test in the upcoming week. Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown volatile performance this week, with technical levels facing multiple key tests, while international political risks continue to escalate.
Technical Analysis: Defensive Battles at Critical Levels
Bitcoin has been repeatedly testing the important support level at 90,800 over the past week. According to the latest price data, BTC is currently trading at $72.49K, down -4.78% over the period. If this week’s weekly candle fails to recover above 90,800, it could face greater pressure moving forward. Once this support is broken, in the context of low trading volume, next week will require close attention to the performance of the lower support levels at 85,000 and even 80,000.
Ethereum’s situation is highly synchronized with Bitcoin. Currently, ETH is priced at $2.11K, with a daily decline of -6.98%. The key technical zone is locked between 3044 and 3157. If ETH cannot reclaim the 3044 level, it may test the previous lows at 2720~2811 or even lower. The trend here entirely depends on whether Bitcoin can hold above 90,800. If BTC drops again, Ethereum’s risk of following suit will significantly increase.
Risk Warning: Increasing Uncertainty in U.S. Policy
The biggest uncertainty this week comes from domestic U.S. policy. On Wednesday the 28th, during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the probability of a rate cut has fallen to just 4.4%, making a cut unlikely. More concerning is the upcoming risk of a U.S. government shutdown on Saturday, January 31.
According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a government shutdown has surged to 74%. Democratic senators have threatened that if the Department of Homeland Security’s funding is included in the budget bill, a shutdown process will be initiated. If the government shuts down again, market liquidity will be impacted once more, which could be the biggest variable next week.
The proactive stance of the Trump administration on tariffs is also noteworthy. Earlier this week, Trump issued a 100% tariff warning against Canada, which responded by saying it is not seeking to negotiate a free trade agreement with China. Currently, this appears more as a bargaining chip rather than a genuine policy escalation, but ongoing developments should be closely monitored.
Data Insights: Whales’ Holdings Reveal Market Sentiment
On-chain data shows interesting contrasts. Over 100+ whales have shown a “two days of selling, one day of buying” pattern this week — yesterday net selling 3,984 BTC, but today net buying 1,018 BTC, with a total net purchase of 922 BTC this week. This reflects an unstable buying and selling rhythm among large holders, evidently influenced by frequent news changes.
Notably, a group of ancient super whales has demonstrated firm holding attitudes. These top addresses currently hold 233,000 ETH, 1,000 BTC, and 510,000 SOL long positions. Despite a barrage of news over the past month, they remain unfazed and highly committed.
In Ethereum, the total holdings of 10,000~100,000 whales continue to decline, with this week’s decrease exceeding the amount staked by Bitmine. Bitmine currently has about 1.94 million ETH staked, while whale holdings have decreased by roughly 2.1 million — after subtracting staked amounts, an additional 150,000 ETH has been reduced. Various uncertainties in the market are evidently driving some locked-in funds to flow out.
Weekend Outlook: A Tumultuous Month Ahead
Since 2026, just within one month, multiple major international dramas have unfolded. Political turmoil in Venezuela, Federal Reserve officials facing criminal investigations, tariff disputes in Greenland, Canadian policy responses, U.S. government shutdown risks — these events are almost all linked to the policy moves of the Trump administration. Their actions are noticeably more aggressive than last year, aiming to push these issues forward rapidly before the midterm elections, with stock market performance serving as the best indicator of economic stimulus.
Amid this intense policy barrage, safe-haven assets like gold are entering their moment, while Bitcoin’s volatility continues to tighten. However, from another perspective, such risk environments may also create the best opportunities for strategic positioning. For investors, this weekend is a critical window for accurately assessing risks and seeking opportunities.
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Saturday Scan: Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Critical Test as U.S. Policy Storm Resurges
Currently, it is the weekend, and the market is about to face a major test in the upcoming week. Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown volatile performance this week, with technical levels facing multiple key tests, while international political risks continue to escalate.
Technical Analysis: Defensive Battles at Critical Levels
Bitcoin has been repeatedly testing the important support level at 90,800 over the past week. According to the latest price data, BTC is currently trading at $72.49K, down -4.78% over the period. If this week’s weekly candle fails to recover above 90,800, it could face greater pressure moving forward. Once this support is broken, in the context of low trading volume, next week will require close attention to the performance of the lower support levels at 85,000 and even 80,000.
Ethereum’s situation is highly synchronized with Bitcoin. Currently, ETH is priced at $2.11K, with a daily decline of -6.98%. The key technical zone is locked between 3044 and 3157. If ETH cannot reclaim the 3044 level, it may test the previous lows at 2720~2811 or even lower. The trend here entirely depends on whether Bitcoin can hold above 90,800. If BTC drops again, Ethereum’s risk of following suit will significantly increase.
Risk Warning: Increasing Uncertainty in U.S. Policy
The biggest uncertainty this week comes from domestic U.S. policy. On Wednesday the 28th, during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the probability of a rate cut has fallen to just 4.4%, making a cut unlikely. More concerning is the upcoming risk of a U.S. government shutdown on Saturday, January 31.
According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a government shutdown has surged to 74%. Democratic senators have threatened that if the Department of Homeland Security’s funding is included in the budget bill, a shutdown process will be initiated. If the government shuts down again, market liquidity will be impacted once more, which could be the biggest variable next week.
The proactive stance of the Trump administration on tariffs is also noteworthy. Earlier this week, Trump issued a 100% tariff warning against Canada, which responded by saying it is not seeking to negotiate a free trade agreement with China. Currently, this appears more as a bargaining chip rather than a genuine policy escalation, but ongoing developments should be closely monitored.
Data Insights: Whales’ Holdings Reveal Market Sentiment
On-chain data shows interesting contrasts. Over 100+ whales have shown a “two days of selling, one day of buying” pattern this week — yesterday net selling 3,984 BTC, but today net buying 1,018 BTC, with a total net purchase of 922 BTC this week. This reflects an unstable buying and selling rhythm among large holders, evidently influenced by frequent news changes.
Notably, a group of ancient super whales has demonstrated firm holding attitudes. These top addresses currently hold 233,000 ETH, 1,000 BTC, and 510,000 SOL long positions. Despite a barrage of news over the past month, they remain unfazed and highly committed.
In Ethereum, the total holdings of 10,000~100,000 whales continue to decline, with this week’s decrease exceeding the amount staked by Bitmine. Bitmine currently has about 1.94 million ETH staked, while whale holdings have decreased by roughly 2.1 million — after subtracting staked amounts, an additional 150,000 ETH has been reduced. Various uncertainties in the market are evidently driving some locked-in funds to flow out.
Weekend Outlook: A Tumultuous Month Ahead
Since 2026, just within one month, multiple major international dramas have unfolded. Political turmoil in Venezuela, Federal Reserve officials facing criminal investigations, tariff disputes in Greenland, Canadian policy responses, U.S. government shutdown risks — these events are almost all linked to the policy moves of the Trump administration. Their actions are noticeably more aggressive than last year, aiming to push these issues forward rapidly before the midterm elections, with stock market performance serving as the best indicator of economic stimulus.
Amid this intense policy barrage, safe-haven assets like gold are entering their moment, while Bitcoin’s volatility continues to tighten. However, from another perspective, such risk environments may also create the best opportunities for strategic positioning. For investors, this weekend is a critical window for accurately assessing risks and seeking opportunities.
Have a great Saturday, and see you in the market~