Private Equity Shakeup! Quantitative firms claim the "king," foreign and insurance funds rush in! Hundreds of billions are just the entry ticket

In 2025, the private equity industry stands at another critical watershed. From crossing the “hundred billion” scale to quantitative strategies surpassing subjective strategies for the first time to become the industry’s dominant force; from deep involvement by foreign and insurance capital to the widespread crossing of the 50 billion yuan mark by “first-tier” firms…

What’s even more noteworthy is that the “Matthew effect” among private funds with over 10 billion yuan has been further strengthened. Leading institutions continue to grow larger and stronger, while small and medium managers accelerate their exit, resulting in a clear industry segmentation. Looking ahead to 2026, the “hundred billion” label, once a symbol of scale and success, is being redefined. A more resilient and diverse competitive landscape is emerging.

Structural Reshaping: Quantitative Funds Achieve Historic Milestone

Throughout the more than a decade of development in the sunshine private equity industry, 2025 is destined to be a year frequently mentioned. This year, a structural transformation of “intergenerational replacement” occurred within the hundred-billion private fund camp, with quantitative private funds surpassing subjective ones for the first time, becoming the industry’s leading force.

Looking back, at the end of 2021, the private equity industry entered the “Double Hundred” era of “100 firms managing over 100 billion yuan” for the first time. At that time, subjective long-only funds still dominated the stage. However, after the market baptism from 2022 to 2024, the internal camp experienced brutal survival of the fittest. In August 2024, amid a sustained market downturn, the management scale of private funds shrank significantly, with the number of hundred-billion private funds dropping sharply to 80. This adjustment served as a deep “stress test” for the private equity industry.

Since “9.24,” as market conditions improved, the overall scale of private funds has stabilized and rebounded. According to CITIC Securities, by the end of 2025, the number of hundred-billion private fund managers had risen back to 112, approaching the historical high of 117 in Q1 2022. The number of managed products has also significantly recovered, nearing 19,000.

Data from the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association shows that as of December 2025, there were 19,231 active private fund managers managing 138,315 funds with a total scale of 22.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.24 trillion yuan from the end of 2024’s 19.91 trillion yuan. Among these, private securities funds managed 7.08 trillion yuan, up 1.87 trillion yuan from the end of 2024, indicating that the growth in total private fund scale mainly came from private securities funds.

If scale recovery is the surface, then structural change is the core of the 2025 evolution of the hundred-billion private fund landscape. According to the latest data from the Private Equity Ranking Network, as of January 23, 2026, the number of hundred-billion private funds reached 118, an increase of 5 from the end of 2025. There have been clear internal adjustments: 4 funds exited the hundred-billion tier, while 9 new or re-entered the hundred-billion camp.

Specifically, among the current 118 hundred-billion private funds, quantitative funds are the most numerous, totaling 55, accounting for 46.61%; subjective strategy funds number 48, accounting for 40.68%; hybrid subjective and quantitative strategy funds total 12, accounting for 10.17%; and 3 insurance capital private funds have not disclosed their investment models.

朱旭, Assistant General Manager of Guangjin Meihui, stated that over the past year, quantitative private funds have become the main force managing over 10 billion yuan, driven by the resonance of market environment, investor demand, and technological advantages. First, the market over the past year showed clear structural and rotational characteristics, with active trading. Quantitative strategies can more sustainably capture excess returns, with stronger performance verifiability. Second, under the background of net value-based wealth management and low interest rates, investors pursue stable excess returns. Quantitative products, especially those with strategies like enhanced, have high interpretability of returns and clear risk features, precisely matching this core demand. Lastly, leading quantitative institutions have formed a positive cycle of “good performance, capital inflow, resource investment, and consolidating advantages.” Barriers in technology, data, and talent continue to strengthen their dominant position.

Li Chunyu, Fund Manager of Rongzhi Investment, a subsidiary of PAI Group, also said that the dominance of quantitative private funds is a trend driven by multiple factors, with performance being the most direct support. Data shows that in 2025, all hundred-billion quantitative private fund products achieved positive returns, significantly outperforming subjective strategies during the same period.

“Deep application of technologies like artificial intelligence greatly improves the iteration efficiency and scalability of quantitative models. Meanwhile, in a low-risk interest rate environment, investors’ demand for stable and predictable returns has increased, making the discipline and risk control capabilities of quantitative strategies more favored,” Li Chunyu said.

Super-Headed Firms: The 500 Billion Club Expands Significantly

Alongside the rise of quantitative funds, there has been another leap in the scale of top private equity firms.

The current hundred-billion camp shows a clear “pyramid” structure. The first tier has generally surpassed the management scale of 50 billion yuan. Among them, only top quantitative private funds include 10 firms with assets firmly above 50 billion yuan, such as Ming Sun, Jiukun, Yifu, Huanfang Quantitative, Kuande, Century Frontier, Chengqi, Black Wing, and others, demonstrating strong capacity for strategy deployment. Meanwhile, subjective private funds represented by Jinglin Asset, Gao Yi Asset, Tianshuiquan, Ningquan Asset, and foreign private funds like Bridgewater China also remain in this tier, with the total number exceeding 15.

In Zhu Xu’s view, “the threshold of ‘100 billion’ remains unchanged, but its significance has qualitatively transformed.” Today, managing over 100 billion is merely a “ticket” for top firms. The industry is now in a “galloping” phase, with the top institutions reaching the scale of 70-80 billion yuan. Sustaining a hundred-billion scale means managers have stronger cyclical resilience and an ecosystem that includes AI technology, multi-strategy approaches, and global allocation—something unthinkable three years ago.

The “ceiling” of the first-tier hundred-billion private funds continues to rise. The industry’s top 30 firms account for the vast majority of excess returns and influence.

Li Chunyu believes that the current “hundred billion” title carries higher value, mainly reflected in increased competition: three years ago, “100 billion” was more a result of market-wide growth and capital inflows. Today, internal monthly adjustments within the “hundred billion club” have become routine, with competition not only between quantitative and subjective funds but also facing challenges from “national teams” like insurance and foreign capital. Maintaining a scale of over 100 billion is far more difficult than reaching it.

In stark contrast to the prosperity of the top firms, the bottom is shrinking. CITIC Securities data shows that micro-managers with assets between 0-5 billion yuan are disappearing at an astonishing rate, with nearly 2,000 firms fewer than at their peak. This “top siphon effect” indicates that the private equity industry has entered a stage of refined competition after the stock of existing firms, with capital flowing increasingly toward top institutions with comprehensive research systems, advanced risk control, and strong branding.

Diversification Accelerates: Foreign and Insurance Capital Flood In

One of the most notable changes in the early 2026 hundred-billion list is the strong expansion of foreign and insurance capital.

Data from Private Equity Ranking Network shows that as of early 2026, the number of hundred-billion foreign private funds has increased to 2, namely Bridgewater China and Tengsheng Investment; the number of hundred-billion insurance private funds has increased to 3. The continuous influx of long-term and overseas institutions is changing the competitive ecology of hundred-billion private funds.

Led by Bridgewater China, foreign institutions are integrating global macro strategies with China’s local markets, not only gaining scale but also becoming important underlying asset allocation tools for domestic institutional investors amid the asset allocation shortage.

According to securities industry sources, last September, the new shares of Bridgewater China were snapped up immediately upon listing, with banks needing to allocate shares to get them, making it a “hot commodity” among high-net-worth clients. In Q4 last year, Bridgewater chose to halt new offerings, with its management scale exceeding 50 billion yuan.

The number of insurance capital private funds reaching 3 signifies that insurance funds, as a “reservoir,” have officially begun deep private equity investment. The rise of insurance private funds not only brings long-term, stable capital inflows but also profoundly changes the ecosystem of private funds—from a pursuit of extreme flexibility to a focus on long-term, low-volatility, absolute returns.

Looking ahead, Li Chunyu believes that “the ‘hundred billion’ itself is no longer the endpoint. The industry’s competitive dimensions will go beyond scale thresholds. Building resilient, multi-strategy investment capabilities, transparent and trustworthy client relationships will become the core competitive barriers for top firms.”

The dramatic transformation of the private equity landscape is a microcosm of China’s capital market maturing. From chaotic growth to refined competition, from subjective brilliance to quantitative rise, from domestic grassroots to the gathering of foreign and insurance capital, China’s private equity industry is undergoing a metamorphosis.

The arrival of an era dominated by quantitative strategies does not mean the end of subjective strategies but signals a more rational and efficient market forming. In this dynamic game of the hundred-billion camp, only those institutions that continuously evolve, respect the market, and adhere to compliance can truly stand at the forefront in 2026 and beyond.

(Source: Securities Times)