Securities Daily: Unveiling the Investment "Mystery" Behind Earnings Forecasts from Three Perspectives

The disclosure of A-share 2025 annual performance forecasts has officially concluded. I believe investors can approach this from three perspectives: industry prosperity, endogenous growth resilience, and turnaround of difficulties, to uncover the hidden “secrets” behind listed companies’ performance forecasts.

First, anchoring on industry prosperity is the primary premise for interpreting performance forecasts.

The health of the industry sector directly determines the company’s performance fundamentals. Data from Wind Information shows that among listed companies that have disclosed last year’s performance forecasts, the electronics (semiconductors), auto parts, and power equipment industries are the main drivers of growth. Specifically, in the semiconductor sector, Cambrian benefits from the sustained increase in industry computing power demand, with an expected net profit attributable to the parent company of over 1.85 billion yuan in 2025, significantly turning around from losses; in the auto parts sector, Bojun Technology benefits from the stable growth of the nationwide passenger vehicle market and the rapid increase in new energy vehicles, with an estimated profit increase of over 35% last year; in the power equipment sector, Mingyang Smart benefits from the continuous expansion of global new energy installation scale, with wind turbine deliveries and sales revenue expanding significantly year-over-year, and an expected net profit growth of over 131.14% last year. These industries are either benefiting from the acceleration of localization or riding the wave of increased penetration of new energy, continuously solidifying the “ballast” for performance growth.

Second, focusing on operational resilience helps distinguish genuine endogenous growth.

Real growth should stem from deepening core business operations, not short-term factors. For example, Zhongke Sanhuan expects a significant turnaround in net profit after non-recurring items in 2025, mainly due to the company’s continuous optimization of operational efficiency and steady expansion of market share; Shanwai Shan, a leading domestic blood purification equipment company, relies on core technological advantages, with product market share continuously increasing, and expects full-year net profit after non-recurring items to grow by 135% to 170% year-over-year. Conversely, if performance relies on government subsidies or asset disposals—such as some companies turning losses into profits by selling property—attention should be paid to the sustainability of these short-term gains.

Third, analyzing the causes of losses can help grasp the path to a turnaround.

Pre-loss forecasts are not always “hard injuries”; distinguishing the driving factors is key to assessing potential. For example, Longi Green Energy expects losses in 2025, but the loss margin has significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. With the ongoing push to “counter internal competition” in photovoltaics and combined with the company’s technological advantages, it is expected to be among the first to emerge from the industry trough in 2026; Pingao Co., Ltd. expects a significant reduction in losses in 2025, mainly due to the company’s efforts to reduce costs and increase efficiency, as well as strengthen receivables management. Such companies hedge industry cycles through cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and business adjustments, and are likely to see an inflection point in performance.

Performance forecasts of listed companies serve as a “barometer” for observing industry development and corporate operations. For market participants, analyzing performance forecasts should not only focus on results but also on reasons; not just on numbers but also on quality. Only by anchoring on industry prosperity, focusing on endogenous growth, and analyzing the core causes of losses can one uncover the “secrets” behind performance forecasts and make rational judgments about the company’s true operational status and growth potential.

(Source: Securities Daily)