February 5th Jing Yi Gold Morning Review

The Asian and European markets rose on expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical safe-haven demand. The US market quickly retreated due to profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar, closing with a long upper shadow, indicating short-term volatility.

Positive factors: High probability of rate cuts in March, with falling real interest rates benefiting gold; tense Middle East situation, with safe-haven capital inflows; ongoing central bank gold purchases worldwide, supporting long-term demand; North American gold mine output is expected to decrease by 2%, with shrinking supply and rising mining costs limiting deep price corrections.

Negative factors: Gold prices surged over 30% in January, with profit-taking pressure concentrated; US Treasury yields slightly rebounded, causing capital to flow out; technical indicators show overbought conditions, with bullish momentum easing.

Technical analysis:
Daily chart: Long upper shadow, MACD histogram shrinking, KDJ pulling back from overbought levels, short-term bullish momentum weakening. The 5/10-day moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, indicating the medium-term upward trend remains intact.
4-hour chart: Bollinger Bands turning downward, gold price near the lower band, MACD forming a death cross, KDJ oversold and turning upward, indicating a short-term rebound is needed. Confirmation requires a break above $4,980.

Support levels: 4850, 4900, 4980
Resistance levels: 5050, 5130, 5280

Trading suggestions: Go long at 5000, with a stop at 4910, target 5030, break above 5100 for further upside, with a wave target of 5310.

Personal opinion, for reference only#加密市场隔夜V型震荡