Trump: India will no longer buy Russian oil, Russia: No, India has never said that, and there is no such plan. The two countries continue to maintain their economic and diplomatic relations, despite recent tensions and rumors. Experts believe that India is balancing its energy needs with its strategic partnerships, and any changes in oil imports will depend on global market conditions and political considerations.

After U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with India, Washington and Moscow have shown clear differences in their interpretations of the deal. Trump claimed that New Delhi had agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, but the Kremlin stated that it has not received any relevant statements from India.

According to CCTV News, on February 2nd, U.S. President Trump posted on the social media platform “Real Social” that he had reached an agreement during a call with Indian Prime Minister Modi, in which India agreed to cease buying Russian oil and instead purchase more from the U.S. and possibly from Venezuela. In exchange, the U.S. would reduce its main tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, and cancel the additional 25% punitive tariffs imposed last summer due to India’s purchase of Russian oil.

In response, according to CCTV International News, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Russia has not received any information indicating India will stop buying Russian oil. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and former Oil Minister Alexander Novak downplayed potential losses, stating, “We only see public statements; we will observe how the situation develops.”

Analysts generally question whether India will completely cease purchasing Russian oil, believing that such a move would have significant economic impacts.

India Remains Silent

On Monday, Modi confirmed on the social platform X that India had reached an agreement with the U.S., stating, “I am pleased that products made in India will now enjoy an 18% reduced tariff,” but did not mention the issue of Russian oil. So far, New Delhi has not commented on whether it will stop buying Russian oil.

Kremlin spokesperson Peskov told RIA Novosti in an interview, “We respect the bilateral relations between the U.S. and India, but we also value the development of an advanced strategic partnership between Russia and India. This is the most important for us, and we plan to further develop bilateral relations with New Delhi.”

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak appeared relatively relaxed about potentially losing Indian customers, saying, “Our energy resources are in demand; we see this often. Supply will always find demand because balance will be maintained.”

Skepticism Among Analysts

Evan A. Feigenbaum, Vice President for Research at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Tuesday, “I find it hard to believe that the Indian government will make any clear commitments regarding Russian oil. India will not simply abandon these relationships under U.S. pressure.”

Feigenbaum pointed out that maintaining a symbolic option to purchase Russian oil reflects India’s diplomatic independence and demonstrates its ability to resist U.S. coercion. Both are important factors in India’s domestic politics. He stated that although there are signs that New Delhi has been gradually reducing its Russian crude oil imports, openly accusing Russia has always been “an impossible option” for Modi.

Economic Impact as a Key Consideration

Moody’s Ratings Agency stated on Tuesday that, considering the potential economic impacts of completely stopping Russian oil purchases, India is unlikely to make a full turnaround. “Although India has reduced its Russian crude oil imports in recent months, it is unlikely to stop all purchases immediately, which could disrupt India’s economic growth.”

Moody’s pointed out that a complete shift to non-Russian oil could tighten supplies elsewhere, push prices higher, and lead to increased inflation, as India is one of the world’s largest oil importers. This could raise manufacturing costs and push up consumer prices.

Analysts believe that, due to the demand for cheap oil, the desire to maintain diplomatic independence, and the need to keep close geopolitical and defense ties with Russia, India is unlikely to fully terminate these purchases.

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