Sinyal Bearish Bitcoin: Saran Analis atas Perubahan Struktur Pasar

BearMarketBuilder · 2026-02-05T08:01:44+00:00

Current Bitcoin dynamics indicate a potential bearish transition, as highlighted by analyst Woominkyu. Rising losses among long-term holders, reflected by the Supply Active Less Than Cost (SALL) metric, warn of increasing selling pressure. Historical trends from 2014, 2018, and 2022 show that similar patterns preceded market downturns, emphasizing the need for cautious observation as a new phase may be emerging.

BearMarketBuilder

2026-02-05 08:01:44

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Current Bitcoin dynamics show significant signs worth noting. According to analysts from CryptoQuant, especially Woominkyu, the Bitcoin market may be undergoing a transition toward a bearish structure, rather than just a correction within a long-term bullish trend. With Bitcoin’s current price around $71,16K, this technical assessment provides important context for investors and traders to understand the complex market dynamics.

SALL Indicator: Warning Signal from Loss-Making Supply

Woominkyu highlights a significant increase in Supply Active Less Than Cost (SALL)—a metric that measures the amount of Bitcoin currently experiencing losses. This shift indicates that losses are not only affecting short-term holders but are also beginning to touch long-term market participants. Historically, rising SALL has been an early indicator of a bearish phase, when selling pressure starts to increase and prices continue to decline. This indicator serves as an important warning for analysts to identify changes in market sentiment before a more serious breakdown occurs.

Lessons from Past Bearish Cycles: 2014, 2018, and 2022

To validate this analysis thesis, it is necessary to review previous Bitcoin market cycles. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, increases in SALL occurred before the actual market bottom was reached. In all three periods, the expansion of loss-making supply continued during the price decline phase, until it finally reached capitulation levels—where liquidations peaked. This historical pattern provides valuable guidance on how the Bitcoin market typically behaves during bearish crises.

Loss-Making Supply Status: Still Far from Capitulation Levels

Although SALL has increased and provided a warning signal, the current loss-making supply level remains well below historical capitulation levels. However, the directional change observed by Woominkyu itself is quite meaningful. The fact that this indicator has changed direction is a sign for analysts to consider bearish scenarios, even if not all supporting conditions have fully formed. This transition indicates that a new phase may be beginning, although the market bottom likely still requires more time and further volatility.

BTC-7,11%

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