"Trend Reversal"! Duty-free shops expand significantly, high-growth potential tickets revealed(Attached table)

Thursday (February 5) saw continued strength in the consumer sector, with duty-free concepts leading the gains. Maoye Commercial, Hangzhou Jie Bai, and others hit the daily limit, while Baida Group, Guangbai Shares, and others followed suit.

Massive Expansion of Duty-Free Stores

On the news front, according to the Ministry of Commerce website on February 2, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the “2026 ‘LeGou New Year’ Spring Festival Special Activities Plan,” proposing six activity areas and five support measures aimed at boosting the holiday market, enriching cultural life, and stimulating holiday consumption, creating a nationwide, all-encompassing Spring Festival shopping feast.

Earlier, on January 21, the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, and other five departments jointly issued the “Notice on Matters Related to Border Entry Duty-Free Shops” (Cai Guan Shui [2026] No. 2) (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), announcing the establishment of new duty-free shops at 41 border ports nationwide and continuing operations at 11 existing ports.

In October 2025, the five departments issued the “Notice on Improving Duty-Free Shop Policies to Support Consumption,” clarifying that from November 1, 2025, duty-free shop policies would be further improved to enhance their role in boosting consumption, guiding overseas spending back home, attracting foreign visitors, and promoting healthy, orderly development of duty-free retail.

CICC Securities research reports show that 41 border ports will have duty-free shops. On January 21, the Ministry of Finance and other five departments jointly issued the “Notice on Matters Related to Border Entry Duty-Free Shops,” proposing to establish one new duty-free shop at each of the 41 ports, including Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, and to adjust some existing duty-free shops. This move will increase the number of duty-free shops at Chinese ports, further expand coverage, and make it more convenient for inbound travelers to shop duty-free, further supporting consumption and boosting the industry.

Institutional Forecast: High Growth in These Stocks Expected This Year

According to data from Eastmoney Choice, based on consensus forecasts for individual stocks covered by institutions, most duty-free concept stocks are expected to see profit growth in 2026.

South Airlines ranks first, with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 300%; Wangfujing ranks second, with a forecasted growth rate over 70%.

Hainan Airport, Spring Airlines, China Duty Free, Shanghai Airport, Lingnan Holdings, Wushang Group, and others have projected net profit growth rates between 20% and 42%.

From the perspective of year-to-date gains, Hainan Airport, Shanghai Port Group, Wangfujing, Shanghai Airport, China Duty Free, and other stocks favored by institutions have seen little price movement despite their strong profit growth potential.

Institution: Duty-Free Index Reversal

Dagang Securities states, “Since 924,” the duty-free index trend has reversed. Starting in Q4 2025, the year-on-year growth of offshore duty-free sales turned positive. Our review found that the three major factors suppressing the duty-free sector’s fundamentals have all improved. Currently, Chinese duty-free retailers face significantly reduced external competition pressure and are gradually expanding into Southeast Asian markets through overseas mergers and acquisitions. Policy efforts and economic environment improvements have boosted consumer confidence and increased discretionary spending potential. After the Ministry of Finance announced the establishment of 41 new border duty-free shops on January 21, the expansion and policy updates for border, offshore, and domestic duty-free stores were completed. The scale of China’s duty-free market is expected to enter a new expansion cycle, with long-term prospects remaining positive.

Structurally, middle- and high-income households, more sensitive to income expectations, are likely to benefit from further macroeconomic improvements. Duty-free and other high-end retail channels are expected to lead the recovery of mass consumption. Since 2025, luxury brands and international high-end fragrance brands have seen quarterly revenue increases in the Asia-Pacific region, confirming the early recovery trend of high-end retail channels.

CICC Securities notes that China’s duty-free policy has deeper significance beyond simple shopping discounts. It is a strategic institutional arrangement integrating economic regulation, industrial upgrading, opening-up, and national image. Domestically, duty-free policies are key drivers for activating domestic demand, upgrading industries, and promoting fairness; internationally, they serve as a window for China to connect with global markets, participate in rule-making, and showcase cultural confidence. First, duty-free policies enable countries to compete for international consumption resources; second, they promote institutional opening-up, serving as a preliminary step for stress testing; finally, they help achieve China’s cultural export and image-building goals. Currently, China’s duty-free industry exhibits an “one super, many strong” overall pattern, but recent bidding events at Beijing and Shanghai airports are likely to trigger deep industry reshuffling, shifting competition from monopoly to diversified competition. China Duty Free, as the leading enterprise nationwide, holds an absolute share and position in duty-free operations, with “full licenses and channels,” a strong global supply chain, upstream bargaining power, and an independent membership system.

（Source: Eastmoney Research Center）