Trump publicly sets the tone for the Federal Reserve, with rate cut expectations at full throttle. The US dollar is under pressure, gold fluctuates mildly stronger, and the crypto market is short-term bullish but with increased volatility. The medium to long-term outlook depends on inflation data and policy implementation pace.

I. Key Points of Trump's "Showdown"

1. Issued a "do or die" order to Fed Chair nominee Waller: dare to propose a rate hike, and the nomination will be immediately invalidated. "Absolutely will not" give him this job.
2. Firmly believes that interest rates "will be cut soon," citing "our interest rates are too high," and emphasizes his financial and economic expertise, suggesting the Fed should learn from him.
3. Acknowledges that the Fed is "theoretically independent" but hints that it must cooperate with his policies. Also pressures to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, and Treasury Secretary Bissent publicly states "the President has the authority to intervene in Fed decisions," putting "White House directing the Fed" front and center.

II. Impact on the Three Major Markets

- US Dollar: Likely to weaken in the short term. Rising rate cut expectations will reduce the attractiveness of dollar assets, possibly leading to capital outflows; however, if inflation rebounds later, markets may worry about policy shifts, causing the dollar to rebound temporarily.
- Gold: Short-term oscillations with a bias toward strength, but volatility will increase. Rate cut expectations are bullish for gold prices, but on February 5, prices spiked then plunged, so beware of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" correction risk. Focus on January inflation data and policy implementation pace.
- Crypto Market: Short-term bullish but with increased volatility. Low interest rate environment favors risk assets, and funds may flow into crypto; however, questions about Fed independence could trigger concerns over policy stability. Coupled with regulatory factors, after a big rally, be cautious of profit-taking and correction risks.

III. Key Observation Points

1. Waller’s nomination progress: whether the Senate confirms smoothly, which will determine if rate cut expectations can continue.
2. Inflation and employment data: January CPI and non-farm payrolls are "hard indicators" for Fed policy; data exceeding expectations may alter the rate cut rhythm.
3. Fed officials' statements: observe whether they withstand pressure or turn dovish.
4. Market sentiment: monitor CME rate futures probability of rate cuts, USD index, technical signals for gold and cryptocurrencies, and adjust strategies accordingly.

IV. Operational Recommendations

1. Short-term: Light positions to speculate on rate cut expectations, set stop-losses, trade quickly in and out, avoid chasing highs.
2. Medium-term: Gradually build positions, focus on main cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, consider adding on dips, avoid full positions blindly.
3. Risk Control: Given increased volatility, keep positions at 30-50%, reserve funds for extreme scenarios, and stay alert to regulatory developments and macro news.
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