Ethereum liquidity converges with macro indicators — ETH poised for a new breakout?

Current macroeconomic conditions suggest that Ethereum is converging with a similar liquidity pattern that preceded a strong bull run in 2021. As on-chain data and global liquidity metrics align once again, analysts are re-evaluating the chances of a multi-month upward movement. With the current ETH price at $2.10K and a 24-hour change of -6.54%, the central question remains: Is a new breakout point actually forming?

The Same Liquidity Pattern from 2021 Repeats

Crypto analyst Sykodelic has identified a historically recurring three-stage pattern that often precedes major Ethereum rallies. The sequence follows a consistent logic:

First, global liquidity expands. Then, US small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) break out. Finally, Ethereum responds with powerful upward movements after a delay. This exact sequence occurred before the 2021 bull market—and is now visible again in monthly charts. Global liquidity has already broken upward, followed shortly by the Russell 2000 with its own breakout. Historically, Ether lags these movements by several weeks before entering a strong expansion phase.

In the previous cycle, ETH began its rally about 119 days after the Russell 2000 breakout and increased by over 226% between March and November 2021. If this timing repeats, analysts could be looking at a critical turning point for Ethereum around March 2026.

Russell 2000 as a Leading Indicator for ETH Movements

To strengthen this thesis, Max, CEO of BecauseBitcoin, notes that the Russell 2000 has historically served as a leading indicator for Ethereum price movements. The index recently hit a new all-time high near 2,738—a development that preceded earlier periods of intense ETH upward movement. The structural similarity between the current and past setups of the Russell 2000 suggests that overall risk appetite is returning beneath the surface.

If these correlations hold, the strength of small-cap stocks in the coming weeks could act as a strong tailwind for Ethereum. The converging signals point to a robust scenario, provided macroeconomic conditions remain stable.

Accumulation Addresses Mark Critical Support

On-chain data adds an additional layer of validation. According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum accumulation addresses—wallets with continuous buy positions and no sales—are steadily increasing their realized price, which is currently around $2,720. This metric has historically served as a strong structural support, and in previous cycles, ETH could not sustain declines below this level.

With ETH currently trading at $2,100, there is approximately 7% downside room to the $2,720 support zone. This area also converges with significant external liquidity clusters, increasing the likelihood of a technical reaction if the price revisits this territory. With a market cap of $253.20B and an supply of 120.69M ETH, Ethereum continues to serve as a stable anchor point for technical analysis.

Why Liquidity, Not Narratives, Will Drive the Next Impulse

While short-term market volatility persists, analysts increasingly argue that Ethereum’s overarching trajectory depends less on headlines and more on global liquidity conditions. In previous cycles, the strongest ETH rallies only unfolded after liquidity expanded and risk appetite subtly returned—often before the overall market psychology shifted.

If the current macroeconomic stance persists, Ethereum could be preparing for a delayed but significant breakout that reflects this historical structure. The converging indicators—global liquidity expansion, Russell 2000 leadership, on-chain accumulation—point to a setup that could move Ethereum from its current $2,100 position back into motion.