BTC fails to break through the number on the hourly chart — analysis of key consolidation

Since the decline on January 21, the BTC price has been unable to break through the EMA 50 level on the hourly chart for several days. This is an obvious signal of a lack of buying pressure and a stagnation in price. After that drop, the price has been in a sideways range, making it difficult to identify new trading opportunities. This condition indicates market uncertainty and the ongoing battle between bulls and bears at key technical levels.

The key message remains unchanged: as long as BTC does not break above the EMA 50 level on the hourly chart and does not rise above the nearest horizontal resistance (according to the P73 Key Horizontal Levels indicator), the price trend remains downward. This is a technical fact that should guide the tactics of any trader in the short term.

EMA 50 as a Key Resistance Level

At the time of analysis, the 50-hour exponential moving average is around $89,653. This acts as the current demarcation line between bulls and bears. Horizontal resistance was at $90,314 but has since moved down to $90,085. Despite this decrease in the critical level, the situation has not improved — the price remains below both benchmarks.

It is important to understand that the EMA serves as a dynamic barrier that shifts depending on price movements. A breakout above it would be a strong signal of buyers regaining control.

Support Levels and Potential Risks

The risk scenario remains the same: if the price stays below the indicated resistance levels, the target range is the nearest support levels between $87,457 and $87,779. On the local 5-minute chart, there is a significant concentration of critical levels of a sustained downtrend down to $87,247.

If bulls fail to hold support at $87,457–$87,779, the scenario develops in the worst-case manner — an impulsive reversal downward to $84,485 is possible. This could lead to a significant extension of the bearish movement.

End-of-Week Volatility and Current Signals

By the end of Friday, market volatility clearly increases, as seen both on minute charts and on the hourly candle. This market condition indicates active competition among participants for the price direction. It is a time of increased risk and simultaneously increased opportunities for precise entries.

The expected rebound, mentioned earlier, remains valid. However, considering that the remainder of Friday and the entire weekend could add additional pressure on the price, the big question is at what level this rebound can start and how significant it will be.

Strategy: Hold the Uptrend or Exit Long Positions

The current situation requires a clear approach to position management. The recommended tactic: if the price falls into a sustained downtrend on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to close long positions even at a loss. This conservative approach protects capital from larger losses.

However, as long as the upward trend on the hourly chart remains strong, there is reason to stay in the position and monitor developments. Balancing risk protection and profit potential is the main challenge in the current BTC situation. Traders should be prepared either to decisively break the level or to acknowledge the development of a negative scenario.