On-chain Data Alert: Bitcoin Falls Below Key Moving Average, Has the "Bearish Period" Truly Begun?

Bitcoin prices experienced intense volatility on February 6. According to the latest data from Gate, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $59,980.6 intraday, hitting a multi-month low. This sudden decline was not an isolated event; since the end of January, Bitcoin has fallen over 20%, causing market sentiment to cool rapidly.

Technical indicators issued warning signals: the 50-day moving average has recently crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming the “death cross,” a key technical turning point that many traders are watching.

BTC Price Snapshot

Based on data from the Gate platform, as of February 6, 2026, Bitcoin’s current price is $65,791.4, with a trading volume of $1.92 billion in the past 24 hours. Market volatility has significantly increased, with the highest price reaching $71,971.9 and the lowest dropping to $59,980.6 within 24 hours, showing a huge fluctuation of over $12,000.

This sharp volatility has caused Bitcoin’s market cap to fall back to $1.31 trillion, but it still maintains over 55% market dominance. Real-time price movements can be continuously monitored on the Gate price tracking page, providing traders with the latest market data.

Such large swings are not without precedent. Historical data shows that on February 5, Bitcoin traded as low as $62,590, with a closing price of $62,940, meaning a decline of over 14% within just 24 hours. This rapid drop has sparked widespread concerns about a potential trend reversal.

Key Technical Indicator Analysis

Technical charts show that Bitcoin has been below key moving averages for several consecutive days, marking the first such technical breakout since November 2024. Market analysts point out that the current pattern is eerily similar to the March 2025 breakdown of a three-month consolidation range.

The moving average system is issuing clear warning signals. The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming the well-known “death cross” in technical analysis. Historical data indicates that if such signals do not see a strong rebound within a week, they typically forecast a consolidation period of 3-6 months.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also shows a shift in market sentiment. During the recent decline, RSI quickly fell from overbought territory back to around the midline of 50, similar to the correction pattern in March 2025. This similarity in technical indicators increases market caution about the subsequent trend.

Looking at support and resistance levels, the $70,000 mark has historically been a key psychological level for Bitcoin. James Butterfield, head of research at a UK-based cryptocurrency investment firm, believes that if this integer level cannot be held, the price could further decline to the $60,000–$65,000 range.

On-Chain Data Insights

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin exchange reserves have increased by 5%, a change often interpreted as a sign of investors taking profits and reducing risk appetite. Meanwhile, whale addresses (addresses holding large amounts of Bitcoin) have decreased their transfer activity by 22%, indicating that large investors have recently reduced market activity.

Market liquidity data is also noteworthy. As prices decline, spot trading volume for Bitcoin has increased significantly, reflecting both selling pressure and capital entering at current levels. This tug-of-war between bulls and bears is clearly visible in on-chain data.

Open interest in futures contracts also provides important information. Despite the significant price swings, Bitcoin futures open interest remains high at $38 billion. The derivatives market has not shown extreme panic, with the put-call ratio stabilizing around 0.7.

Bull-Bear Market Sentiment

Current market opinions on Bitcoin’s future trend are sharply divided. Pessimists believe this decline could mark the start of a larger downward trend. Marianne Laubrey, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that signals from market sell-offs suggest traditional investors are losing interest, increasing bearish sentiment toward cryptocurrencies.

Some analysts believe Bitcoin may be breaking away from the traditional four-year bull-bear cycle. Crypto asset management firm Bitwise notes that the factors driving the four-year cycle—such as Bitcoin halving effects, interest rate cycles, and leverage-driven volatility—have significantly weakened.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that with interest rates expected to decline in 2026, leverage effects diminishing, and regulatory environments improving, Bitcoin may no longer need to follow the traditional bull-bear rhythm. This view contrasts with most market analysts, who generally see 2026 as a potential bear year.

Multiple Factors Influencing the Market

The macroeconomic environment plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s performance. Global liquidity conditions, interest rate expectations, and regulatory policy changes are shaping the cryptocurrency market. Bitwise points out that as interest rates are expected to fall in 2026, Bitcoin could gain new upward momentum.

Institutional capital flows are also key variables. Since the market crash on October 10, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced continuous outflows, totaling $1.87 billion. Leading products like BlackRock’s iBit have seen three consecutive weeks of net redemptions, reflecting a significant decline in institutional risk appetite.

Regulatory changes also impact market confidence. Bitwise states that pro-crypto regulatory policies will provide new upward catalysts for Bitcoin. Clear regulatory frameworks help reduce institutional uncertainty and encourage long-term capital inflows.

Notably, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has dropped from 0.7 in September to the current 0.4. This decoupling partly stems from Bitcoin’s unique supply structure—78% of circulating supply has not moved in over a year, reaching a record high.

Investor Strategies and Risk Warnings

In a highly volatile market environment, investors need to adopt cautious strategies. Dollar-cost averaging is a way to reduce risk, gradually building positions near key support levels to smooth entry costs.

Technical analysis can offer guidance but should not be the sole basis. Setting reasonable take-profit and stop-loss levels is critical for risk management. Additionally, closely monitoring macroeconomic policies, regulatory developments, and capital flows can help investors make more comprehensive judgments.

A long-term perspective is especially important in turbulent markets. Bitwise expects that with regulatory progress and increased institutional inflows, Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks will further decline in 2026. This suggests Bitcoin may offer return characteristics different from traditional assets.

From a market cycle perspective, despite short-term uncertainties, crypto asset management firm Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will challenge new all-time highs in 2026, potentially surpassing a 50% increase. This long-term optimism contrasts sharply with short-term technical warnings, highlighting the market’s complexity and multi-dimensionality.

Future Outlook

On-chain data indicates Bitcoin is undergoing a critical technical test. James Butterfield’s view, which is being validated by the market, is that Bitcoin has already broken below the key psychological level of $70,000.

Data from cryptocurrency exchanges shows that Bitcoin’s maximum decline in the past 24 hours was 9.74%. If Bitcoin cannot recover key moving averages, the market may need to prepare for a longer period of downturn.

This crossroads is not only a decision on price direction but also a test of the resilience of decentralized assets in a macro tightening cycle. Investors who remain calm amid panic may be able to reap excess returns in the next cycle.