Five Retail REITs in Philip Wakefield's Spotlight: Q4 2025 Earnings Watch

As the earnings season unfolds in early 2026, the retail real estate investment trust sector is attracting significant analyst attention. Philip Wakefield and other industry experts are closely monitoring five major players in this space—Cushman & Wakefield, Simon Property Group, Regency Centers, Kimco Realty, and Federal Realty Investment Trust—as they prepare to report their fourth-quarter 2025 results. These announcements will reveal how stable market conditions translated into bottom-line performance for companies navigating a complex but ultimately supportive retail landscape.

The timing of these earnings reports is particularly noteworthy given the dramatic transformation in retail real estate over the past 18 months. After years of uncertainty and uneven recovery, the sector has entered a stabilization phase marked by strong consumer engagement, resolution of trade policy concerns, and disciplined supply management. This reset creates an ideal backdrop for investors to assess which retail REITs are best positioned to capitalize on improving fundamentals.

Q4 2025 Retail Market: Strong Fundamentals Amid Economic Stability

The fourth quarter of 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience across the retail real estate sector. According to the latest market data, national retail vacancy declined to 5.7%, a significant tightening compared with long-term historical averages. This compression reflects a balanced supply-demand equation that has favored property owners and positioned landlords with advantageous pricing power entering 2026.

Net absorption—the key metric indicating whether retailers are expanding or contracting their footprint—turned positive across all major U.S. regions for the first time in several quarters. Notably, the fourth quarter registered approximately 3.4 million square feet of net absorption, marking the strongest quarterly improvement since Q4 2023. This rebound signals genuine demand recovery rather than temporary stimulus-driven activity.

Supply discipline remained a defining characteristic of the market. New retail construction remained measured, preventing the oversupply conditions that plagued the sector in prior years. This restraint proved particularly beneficial for second-tier and secondary markets, where occupancy stabilization opened opportunities for rent growth and tenant diversification.

Market Dynamics Shaping REIT Performance

Leasing momentum accelerated notably in the final stretch of 2025, driven by a diverse tenant base. Grocery chains continued their expansion as essential-category anchors, while discount retailers and emerging experiential concepts—ranging from fitness studios to entertainment venues—absorbed available space. This tenant mix diversification reduced dependency on any single category while broadening appeal to affluent suburban and urban trade area consumers.

Asking rents reflected the improved market backdrop, trending higher on a year-over-year basis to $25.29 per square foot. This pricing power stems from stable tenant sales performance and sustained consumer foot traffic, factors that underpin lease renewal rates and new tenant acquisition. Looking ahead, Cushman & Wakefield and other market observers expect vacancy to hover below 6% throughout 2026, with rent growth projected in the 2-2.5% range—a modest but meaningful expansion for well-capitalized REITs.

The combination of tight vacancy, positive absorption, and modest rent growth creates what industry analysts describe as a “Goldilocks” environment: neither overheated nor stagnant. For REITs with premium asset portfolios concentrated in high-income submarkets, these conditions translate directly into earnings accretion.

Individual REIT Analysis: Growth Catalysts and Valuation Signals

Simon Property Group enters earnings season with considerable momentum. The company operates one of the most strategically diversified portfolios in the sector, combining dominant domestic shopping mall assets with selective international exposure. Simon Property’s aggressive pivot toward omnichannel integration and mixed-use development—blending retail with residential, office, and experiential components—positions it to capture secular shifts in consumer preferences. The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, scheduled for February 2 after market close, are anticipated to reflect $1.63 billion in revenues, representing 2.84% year-over-year growth. Funds from operations (FFO) per share, the industry’s preferred earnings metric, are expected to reach $3.47. Historically, Simon Property has exceeded consensus estimates in all four trailing quarters, averaging 3.54% beats.

Regency Centers specializes in premium grocery-anchored shopping centers positioned in affluent suburban corridors and near urban centers where consumer spending power remains robust. This focused strategy generates reliable traffic and tenant demand even during uncertain macro periods. Regency’s February 5 earnings announcement should reveal revenue growth of approximately 7.09% year-over-year, reaching $398.94 million. NAREIT FFO per share guidance sits at $1.17, implying 7.34% year-over-year growth—a particularly healthy expansion rate within the REIT universe. The company’s strategic acquisition activity and development pipeline further enhance long-term value creation potential.

Kimco Realty operates a portfolio heavily weighted toward necessity-based retail in drivable first-ring suburban locations across Sunbelt and coastal metropolitan areas. This geographic and category focus insulates Kimco from discretionary spending volatility while capturing demographic tailwinds in growing regions. The February 12 report should show fourth-quarter revenues of $537.59 million, up 2.32% year-over-year, with FFO per share reaching 44 cents—a 4.76% year-over-year increase. Kimco’s mixed-use development initiatives in strong economic centers are expected to enhance net asset value over time.

Federal Realty Investment Trust focuses on premium retail assets in upscale geographic locations, leveraging constrained supply conditions to drive occupancy gains and rent expansion. The company’s February 12 announcement should reveal revenues of $328.96 million, representing 5.63% year-over-year growth. FFO per share guidance of $1.86 implies 7.51% year-over-year expansion, among the sector’s more impressive growth rates. Federal Realty’s value-accretive acquisition strategy and urban mixed-use asset development further bolster long-term earnings potential.

Cushman & Wakefield, while primarily a real estate services provider rather than a traditional REIT, serves as a critical barometer for market health. The firm’s Q4 2025 retail market report, which informed much of this analysis, reinforces improving landlord fundamentals and tenant demand visibility entering 2026.

The Zacks Framework: Understanding Earnings Surprise Metrics

Identifying which REITs will exceed market expectations requires understanding the investment framework employed by research professionals. The Zacks methodology combines two critical signals: the Zacks Rank (ranging from 1—Strong Buy—through 5—Strong Sell) and Earnings ESP (Earnings Surprise Prediction), a proprietary metric capturing the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Historical data demonstrates that stocks combining a top-tier Zacks Rank with positive Earnings ESP achieve positive earnings surprises at rates exceeding 70%. This framework has proven particularly effective in the REIT sector, where capital allocation discipline and market cyclicality create measurable divergences between street expectations and actual results.

Simon Property Group carries a Rank 2 (Buy) with +0.67% Earnings ESP, suggesting modest surprise potential. Regency Centers matches this ranking with a +1.11% ESP, indicating slightly elevated beat probability. Kimco holds a Rank 3 (Hold) paired with +1.43% ESP, while Federal Realty carries a Rank 3 with +0.90% ESP. These combinations position the quartet as candidates for modest positive surprises, though the magnitude of upside varies by property.

Investment Positioning and Outlook

The retail REIT sector’s transition from recovery to stabilization creates distinct investment implications. Companies with well-located assets, diversified tenant bases, and balance sheet strength are positioned to convert stable operational environments into meaningful earnings growth. The five REITs highlighted in this analysis—Simon Property, Regency Centers, Kimco Realty, Federal Realty, and Cushman & Wakefield—represent the upper tier of sector quality.

The February earnings announcements will provide concrete evidence of whether market observers’ constructive outlook for retail real estate proves justified. Investors monitoring these companies should focus particularly on same-store net operating income growth, occupancy trends, and management commentary regarding 2026 leasing momentum—metrics that will signal whether the sector’s current tailwinds persist or face headwinds as the year progresses.