2.6 The market opened lower and then moved higher, but the trend is insincere. Be careful of another decline.

First, like, then watch, earn a million daily, keep working hard and tip generously, good luck always! [Taogu Bar]

First is an overview of the market

Currently, the most frustrating aspect of the market is how quickly rotation occurs—sectors that were strong the day before not only lose their premium the next day but often fall further. The coal and photovoltaic sectors that were strong the day before yesterday only dipped after a brief rally yesterday; retail, which was strong yesterday, was directly undercut today; AI applications that recovered well yesterday also saw sharp dips in the bidding. So, I clearly pointed out in the morning that if retail sectors that were strong yesterday still can’t hold today, then the sectors showing strength today are also unreliable. Let’s look at the chemical sector that was strong at the open, followed by a rally in robotics—doesn’t that seem a bit like a false start? To identify which sectors have sustainability, basically, the simplest method is to observe the market volume and positive moves. If there’s no surge in volume, then the sectors that were strong on Monday might just be a rush to get ahead. Playing this way, only the early movers can take profits, and there’s little water to buy because the stocks bought are likely to dip again.

Regarding market sentiment, it’s been repeatedly suppressed. Currently, it’s just four boards, Jingtou no longer has sectors, Han Jian’s positive news exploded with a single order, Hangzhou Jiebai had retail yesterday, and today retail was directly stabbed in the back, leading to a rotten board. Jinfuli’s positive news was also a single order, but the order book wasn’t large. AI hardware has some fermentation but isn’t strong. All signs indicate that the relay is a dead water pool; only the first board and one in two can be played. If the four-board level can’t go through, who will go for the three-board?

Overnight, due to a sharp decline in US stocks and important positive news, the bidding sentiment was very pessimistic. Teyi Pharmaceutical and Panlong both had single orders, with Teyi adding more orders. The remaining ones are Hangzhou Jiebai and Jinfuti, which also had single orders due to positive news, but the order book was relatively small. Hangzhou Jiebai barely held, but the sector was heavily stabbed back, leading to a rotten board. Looking at this, where is the room for relay? So, funds are doing a curve rescue, starting to play the break reversal. It’s clear that they believe early, and after others finish playing, they prepare to withdraw, so you go to catch the rebound.

Basically, the progress of consecutive limit-ups is still quite poor. Several days of consecutive limit-ups are single digits, and sentiment is quite low. At this point, don’t force yourself into the relay. If there’s no main line, resting is a good choice. Continuously chasing gains and cutting losses in the market is the real source of account losses.

Yesterday’s evaluation of Tianzhong Precision Machinery was quite accurate: it’s a group stock. No fear of falling, but fear of accelerating continuously. The day before yesterday, it plunged 20 points in the closing auction; yesterday, it showed strong recovery in the auction; today, it continued to advance. This indirectly indicates that the market has no main line, chaos prevails, so the group mentality is intensifying. Huasheng has computing power attributes; Jinfuti opened a single order, but it doesn’t take advantage of this benefit. On one hand, Jinfuti’s orders were withdrawn more; on the other hand, many stocks on the board yesterday leaked out, suspecting quantitative liquidation, so it opened low today with a quick jump. As for Jinfuti Technology, be cautious—previously acquired Lanyuan Technology, then fell after the rise, saying they wouldn’t acquire it anymore, triggering an investigation. This time, they said they would acquire two companies with cash—be careful, it might be a smoke screen.

Regarding the limit-up stocks, aside from positive news, the high turnover relay is suppressed. Only the first board and one in two are possible. When the turnover height increases, the situation might open up. Once the height can be effectively broken, the lower the pressure, the higher the rebound. Today, there are three stocks at the one-two-three boards, and I mentioned to watch out for three pulling one down and one smashing. Jingtou opened lower and immediately capitulated; Huasheng Titan’s first board also opened low and sold off, leaving only Jiebai with a rotten board. Yesterday’s limit-up “Three Thinks Tourism” and “Three Generals Consumption” are still gaining momentum. Are the three shifts about to rest?

Looking at the bidding information, the opening of Jinfuti’s 4 billion yuan order was quite shocking, but many orders were canceled due to poor environment. With smaller orders at Jinfuti, Hangdian could open flat, meaning it moved independently without much assistance from others. Panlong and Teyi’s single orders clearly indicate risk, especially Teyi adding orders, reflecting risk aversion sentiment. Jinfuti’s many cancellations suggest it’s not an assist, and Huasheng directly gave up.

After bidding ended, Hangdian opened flat, Julli opened red. Currently, funds prefer break reversal strategies. You can say they are grouping, or they are indifferent to opening the limit-up. The entire market is internally consuming; strong sectors today might just dip again tomorrow. Will the sectors that are strong today rush ahead in the afternoon? If so, the market will become more competitive, and eventually, all will be hit. Later, new themes might attract capital focus. So, in the current environment, I repeatedly remind everyone: keep positions small, participate lightly, and only increase positions when themes are focused and show sustained profit effects.

Regarding today’s overall market, after last night’s sharp decline in US stocks, precious metals and BTC also fell sharply, which directly caused panic in bidding. Yesterday’s strong retail and consumer sectors were immediately sold in the auction, telling you not to chase the strong intra-day; if you chase, you’ll be sold the next day. Only buy on dips, but dips may not immediately rebound; it might take a few days to recover. For example, the previously debated space photovoltaic sector showed some recovery this afternoon, but the strength was limited. When the market fell back, most also retreated. Overall, the problem lies in trading volume—volume keeps shrinking, more and more funds are leaving the market to watch. It’s possible the market will continue to decline, either to create value or to produce a sensational theme. Otherwise, funds won’t enter. The more cautious around the New Year, the more subdued the market. Currently, the overall market is dull. Once a hot spot is viewed positively, it might disappear the next day. The rhythm is to hold and wait for rotation and recovery, mainly low buying. Don’t chase highs, or you’ll get trapped and cut losses, then chase again and get trapped again. It’s okay to hold a vacant position if you can’t play well; there’s no big trend now, so don’t worry about missing out.

Market review of limit-up stocks today

1. Four Boards
   Han Jian Heshan Beijing Infrastructure, positive news single order, failed to hold, indicating no desire to resist damage. Poor name, all good names have been exhausted.

2. Three Boards
   a. Kailong High-tech, positive news single order, Jiangsu robotics, robotics led today.
   b. Hangzhou Jiebai, Zhejiang retail, gold, indirect holdings in Zhongke Yuhang, good capital base, retail stabbed back. As mentioned earlier, sectors that were strong the day before tend to explode later, so consecutive limit-ups are not smooth.
   c. Xiexin Integration, Shanghai space photovoltaic, although not proactive during the session, had high-quality limit-up, main control still in place.

3. Two Boards
   a. Jinfuti Technology, Guangdong packaging, consumer, last rebound small cycle leader, acquisition positive, acquired a metal company, liquid cooling. Today, metals and AI hardware moved, but the bidding orders were small.
   b. Huangting International, Guangdong retail, semiconductor, micro trading, weak at first but opened high and turned strong during the session.
   c. Tianzhong Precision Machinery, group stock, only can say impressive.
   d. Shenjian Shares, Anhui commercial aerospace, was heavily identified with Julli in the afternoon; actually, Julli doesn’t want to limit-up either, feeling it’s a small group guiding the aerospace rebound.

4. First Board
   a. Teyi Pharmaceutical, Guangdong traditional Chinese medicine positive, bidding added to the maximum order, risk-averse attribute.
   b. Bangjie Shares, Zhejiang textile, photovoltaic, supporting Zhejiang.
   c. Jicheng Electronics, power grid equipment, following Hangdian.
   d. Demei Chemical, Guangdong chemical, textile auxiliaries, after the explosion, the sector recovered.
   e. Hangdian Shares, fiber optics, power grid, photovoltaic, break reversal structure, the closing explosion was quite eye-catching, bidding finished with five points, then re-closed, grabbing attention? Feels like deliberately blowing up Hengdian and then rising to the top.
   f. Baichuan Shares, chemical, traffic lights, has debt.
   g. Baili Technology, Hunan robotics, batteries, small market cap, scattered share capital.
   h. Wuzhou Xinchun, Zhejiang robotics, good name, sector saw inflows today, watch for further fermentation.
   i. Tianqi Shares, Jiangsu, Ubtech Robotics, Spring Festival robot.
   j. Baida Precision, Zhejiang, Spring Festival robot, following Tianqi.
   k. Zhongxing Junye, Gansu agriculture, continuing Gansu’s support?
   l. Mingdiao Shares, Zhejiang AI applications, real estate, guiding Hengdian or Hangdian.
   m. Xiexin Energy Science, seems to be Xiexin pushing Xiexin Integration.
   n. Yinhe Electronics, following Shenjian, aiming for a rebound from oversold.
   o. Kairui De, Hubei, coal, quick dip and rebound, then rapidly hit the limit, main control showing off.

Today’s trading review

Missed the bidding, didn’t sell, opened with a gap up.

Hangdian hit the limit, fiber optics moved, but the trend was interrupted by Tongding Interconnection.

Wuzhou Xinchun hit the limit, Tianqi followed, I low-bought core Ubtech’s Fenglong during the deep water.

Overall, the market feels quite tough now. Today’s pattern of opening low and closing high, volume can’t be pushed out, sideways from noon, then a half-hour plunge at the close. Sector rotation is very rapid. Any hot spot that looks promising during the day will likely be trapped if chased. Only low buy and wait for rotation. Looking at the market trend and volume, next week’s last five trading days probably won’t see big moves. Keep positions light or stay flat.

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