80% chance of rise in the 5 days before the holiday? A review of A-share market trends around the Spring Festival over the past 20 years

Today (February 6) after the market closes, there are only 5 trading days left before the Spring Festival in 2026. How the stock market will perform before the Spring Festival and whether there will be a spring rally after the festival have become the focus of investors. Historical data shows that the probability of A-shares rising around the Spring Festival has been relatively high over the past 20 years.

According to data from Eastmoney Choice, from 2006 to 2025, the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the 5 days before the Spring Festival was 80%, with the highest increase of 9.82% and the lowest decline of 4.57%. The median change was 1.94%. The probabilities of rising in the 5, 10, 20, and 30 days after the Spring Festival were 75%, 70%, 80%, and 60%, respectively, with median changes of 1.64%, 1.32%, 9.45%, and 3.88%. Although there has been some fluctuation, overall, the “spring agitation” market trend is evident.

Specifically for this year’s Spring Festival period, China Merchants Securities stated that the market will mainly fluctuate in the near future. The index is expected to perform better after the festival than before, continuing to favor growth styles. The performance gap between large-cap and small-cap stocks is expected to narrow, with large caps leading first, then small caps.

Northeast Securities believes that after the festival, the market may shift from defensive to a mix of growth and dividend styles, with significant rotation between technology (AI, semiconductors) and cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals).

(Source: Eastmoney Research Center)