[February 6th Practical Review]: Shengtong Energy accurately escapes the top, opening positions in GCL-Poly for layout, and the direction for next week looks here

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Today’s morning market views and review have clearly validated the predictions! Those who read the article carefully today all made gains!

Open position: GCL System Integration hit the limit-up, Shengtong Energy gained 15cm and escaped the top precisely. Who else is doing this operation?

[Taoguba]

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Today’s operations:

Take profit on Jingtou Development, open position on GCL System Integration

Trading logic:

Brothers, today we analyze these stocks together, from layout to exit, every step is on the emotional node.

Hangdian Co. (laid out yesterday)

Hangdian’s limit-up today is a continuation of funds’ support for the ultra-high voltage + power grid equipment line. As a core target starting from a low position, it just hit the market’s defensive demand for new energy infrastructure. It opened with a direct surge, indicating that the pre-market funds had no intention of giving outsiders a chance, a typical synchronized emotional trend. Under this strength, as long as the main line doesn’t switch, there is still upward momentum.

GCL System Integration (laid out today)

GCL’s afternoon surge is a sign of a rebound in the new energy main line within photovoltaics. Its core logic is the industry heat of TOPCon batteries, and currently, the market is in a phase of shrinking and consolidating growth main lines. The intraday shakeout seems to be deliberately created by funds to clear out floating positions, and the quick surge in the afternoon confirms the fund’s absorption capacity. This rhythm of entry just hits the sector rotation node.

Yao Wang Technology (morning reminder)

Morning reminder: don’t go if there’s no gap up for Yao Wang. Today, it indeed adjusted and closed lower. It belongs to the internet celebrity economy sub-line, lacking continuous funding anchors, and the opening did not meet expectations, directly breaking the bullish anticipation. In the context of market contraction, when sentiment weakens, funds will not hesitate to cash out, which also confirms our principle of not chasing weak stocks.

Shengtong Energy (precise profit-taking)

Laid out last Thursday, precisely took profit yesterday, earning over ten points of big gains. Today, it hit the limit-down, perfectly avoiding the trap. Shengtong is essentially a sentiment-driven short-term stock, lacking sustained fundamentals support. Once market sentiment cools, funds will quickly flee. Yesterday, I judged that sentiment was at a high divergence, and decisively suggested exiting. Today’s limit-down is the result of unanimous fund escape. This operation perfectly demonstrates the essence of not earning the last penny.

Luge always says, stock picking is not random; it relies on logic and rhythm. Today’s limit-up is the best proof!

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1. The Market

Today’s market shows weak profitability. There are 61 stocks hitting the limit-up, with a 66.30% sealing rate. The average increase of stocks hitting the limit yesterday is -0.39%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by -0.25%. The willingness to buy is clearly cooling.

Market sentiment has shifted from local activity to cautious betting. Only new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and a few growth main lines received fund support, with the ladder structure of consecutive limit-ups shrinking. The high-standard stocks are only at 4 limit-ups, and low-priced targets lack support, with profit-making concentrated mainly in core leaders.

From the fund flow perspective, the current market features sector shrinkage and risk-averse funds. New energy vehicles, with 12 stocks hitting the limit-up, are the only strong main line. Lithium batteries, robotics, and related sectors follow closely, while AI and Huawei concepts are declining, with no obvious fund inflow. There are still 10 stocks hitting the limit-down, indicating ongoing liquidation of weak stocks. Future focus should be on whether the 4-limit-up high-standard stocks can advance further, and whether the new energy vehicle main line can attract more low-priced rebound stocks, to judge if the market sentiment is warming up or further weakening.

2. Sector Main Line Analysis

Today’s market main line shows a focus on growth, sector contraction, and weak sub-lines, with funds clustering around new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and other defensive main lines. Other sectors are generally weak, with profit effects highly concentrated in a few core stocks.

1. New Energy Vehicles: Growth main line, fund clustering

8-day 5-limit leader: Baichuan Co.

As the core leader of the new energy vehicle concept, relying on the logic of breakthroughs in sodium-ion battery technology, it continues to strengthen amid market weakness, becoming an emotional anchor within the sector. Its continuous limit-ups not only activate sector enthusiasm but also drive related industry chain stocks to hit multiple limit-ups.

First-tier: Galaxy Electronics, Kerei Technology, Enjie Co., etc., with 12 stocks hitting the limit-up in batch, covering automotive electronics, lithium batteries, and other sub-fields. Funds’ risk-averse clustering on the main line of new energy vehicles is clear, forming a structure led by sector leaders and first-limit-up stocks.

Luge’s interpretation: This is currently the only sustainable main line in the market. In a weak market, the defensive attribute of growth stocks is prominent, and fund clustering on core stocks is very strong. Future focus should be on whether Baichuan Co. can continue its limit-up streak. If it can keep advancing, it may further boost low-priced rebound stocks within the sector; if divergence occurs, attention should be paid to the absorption strength of first-limit-up stocks within the sector.

2. Lithium Battery/Robotics: Growth sub-line, sector rotation active

3-limit leader: Kailong High-Tech
As a lithium battery sector stock, it relies on the logic of upgrading exhaust gas treatment technology, achieving consecutive limit-ups, becoming an emotional anchor in the sector, and driving related stocks like battery materials and robotics to rise in tandem.

First-tier: Tianqi Co., Wuzhou Xinchun, etc., with batch limit-ups, covering battery recycling, precision manufacturing, and other sub-fields. Funds’ rotation willingness in growth sub-lines is clear, with a multi-point blooming pattern within the sector.

Luge’s interpretation: These sectors are extensions of the new energy vehicle main line, benefiting from the overall heat of growth stocks. Funds’ arbitrage on core stocks is strong. The sector has formed a structure led by sector leaders and first-limit-up stocks, and if continuous volume increases occur, they may become parallel main branches alongside new energy vehicles.

3. Infrastructure/Natural Gas: Pulsed market, weak sustainability

4-limit leader: Hanjian Heshan
As a representative of the infrastructure sector, it relies on the logic of increased local water conservancy investment, achieving consecutive limit-ups, but only one stock hit the limit today, with no effective sector linkage, and limited fund attention.

First-limit stock: Intercontinental Oil & Gas (Natural Gas)
Relying on the logic of rising overseas gas prices, it was pushed up by funds, but only as a single stock pulse, with no other linked stocks in the sector, making sustainability weak.

Luge’s interpretation: These sectors are exploratory layouts outside the growth main line, with only local arbitrage opportunities and lacking sustained fund support. Caution is advised against chasing high. If the main line remains strong, the potential of these stocks is relatively limited.

4. Other sectors: Generally weak, funds diverted

Artificial intelligence, Huawei concepts, low-altitude economy, and other sectors are all declining today, with only a few stocks experiencing pulse-like surges. No sector has consecutive limit-ups, and fund attention is very low, with no effective profit effects.

Luge’s interpretation: Under the current market contraction pattern, these sectors are weak after fund diversion, with only very short-term arbitrage opportunities. It’s recommended to wait and see, and consider low-buy opportunities after market sentiment warms and funds flow back.

3. Tomorrow’s emotional front-runners to watch

1. Continuity of core stocks

Han Jian Heshan (4-limit): As the only high-standard anchor in the market, its opening strength and support level will directly determine the trend of consecutive limit-ups. If the opening exceeds expectations and shows resilience, the continuation of the limit-up ecosystem can be expected; if it weakens or drops quickly, further sentiment decline is likely.

Baichuan Co. (5-limit in 8 days): The emotional core of the new energy vehicle main line, its limit-up performance will verify the market’s recognition of the main line. If it continues to advance, it indicates a solid foundation for sustained growth; if not, avoid the risk of chasing other stocks in the sector.

Hangzhou Jiebai (3-limit): A leading stock in the new retail sub-line. If it continues to strengthen, it may drive the consumer sector’s linkage. Watch whether it can break out independently and become an important supplement to the main line.

2. Sector linkage

New energy vehicle / lithium battery sectors: Focus on the next-day premium of Baichuan Co., Kailong High-Tech, and other stocks, as well as the rebound strength of low-priced first-limit-up stocks, to verify the sector’s expansion and fund clustering.

Infrastructure / natural gas sectors: Watch for the next-day premium of Hanjian Heshan, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, and other high-standard stocks to verify the sustainability of the theme. If stocks with consecutive limit-ups appear, they may become important branches outside the main line.

Consumer sub-line: Track whether Tiyi Pharmaceutical, Hangzhou Jiebai, and other stocks can upgrade to consecutive limit-ups, to verify the sustainability of the consumer sub-line. If many stocks upgrade, it indicates the sector has potential to challenge the main line.

3. Volume and emotional stability

If market turnover remains relatively active, the expectation of fund clustering in growth main lines will be further reinforced; if volume shrinks significantly, beware of increased intra-day divergence. Prioritize certain opportunities and be cautious with chasing late-following stocks.

Also, pay attention to the overall premium performance of yesterday’s limit-up stocks. If they continue to outperform the index, it indicates the market’s profit effect remains; otherwise, reduce positions to manage risks.

4. Trading strategy for tomorrow

Will be posted around 9 AM in the main comment section

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